(d) Two ways in which this incidence pattern can change are: outbreak H the occurrence rate of the disease increases to 0.3 in one month and then returns to its natural level; outbreak M the occurrence rate of the disease increases to 0.15 for a six month period and then returns to its natural level. To detect these two possible types of outbreak two simple notication rules have been devised. For a population of size 30,000 they are as follows: Report a type H outbreak if the number of occurrences in one month is 8 or more. Report a type M outbreak if the number of occurrences in at least 3 months out of a 6-month period is 5 or more. When the underlying occurrence rate of the disease is at its natural level in a particular city with a 30,000 population: (e) Suppose that outbreak H occurs in the city at the start of a 6 month period after which the situation returns to normal. What is the probability that a type H outbreak is reported sometime in the 6 month period