Question: Data: Real Option Data WACC= 14% Probability Cash Flow Risk-free rate = 2% 30% $50 Initial cost of project= $70 45% $30 Project life (years)
Data: Real Option Data WACC= 14% Probability Cash Flow Risk-free rate = 2% 30% $50 Initial cost of project= $70 45% $30 Project life (years) 3 25% $10 Proceed with Project Today without real option Future Cash Flows NPV of this Probability Now: Year 0 Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Scenario Probability x NPV High $50 $50 $50 $46.08 0.30 $13.82 -$70 Average $30 $30 $30 -$0.35 0.45 -$0.16 Low $10 $10 $10 -$46.78 0.25 -$11.70 1.00 Expected value of NPVs = $1.97 Decision Tree Analysis: Timing Option: Implement in One Year Only if High Future Cash Flows NPV of this Probability Now: Year 0 Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Scenario Probability x NPV High $0 $50 $50 $50 $46.08 0.30 $13.82 Wait Average $0 $30 $30 $30 -$0.35 0.45 -$0.16 Low $0 $10 $10 $10 -$46.78 0.25 -$11.70 Expected PV of Future CFs = $1.97
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