Data Set $1$

Period Actual

$1200$

$2200$

$3600$

$4300$

$5100$

$6400$

$7600$

$8600$

$9400$

$10470$

$11430$

$12440$

Using data set $1,$ next sheet titled HW$1,$ calculate the following forecasts thru period $13.$

A $$ Na$$ve forecast

B $3$ period simple moving average forecast

C $4$ period simple moving average forecast

D $3$ period weighted moving average forecast with weights of $0\mathrm{.}2,0\mathrm{.}3,0\mathrm{.}5$ from oldest to newest

E $$ an exp. smoothing forecast with alpha $=0\mathrm{.}3$

F $$ an exp. smoothing forecast with alpha $=0\mathrm{.}2$

$($note for E and F$,$ start with period $1$ forecast $=200.)$

Then for each forecast, calculate the RSFE, the MAD, the MSE and the MAPE. Do this in the spreadsheet in the areas provided.

Then tell me$,$ based on the MAD, MSE, MAPE, and TS in the summary area, which forecast you prefer.