Question: Data Source: https://www.dhs.gov/immigration-statistics/yearbook/2021 Question 3. Forecasting (see Example on left, and answer in Exercise Area on right) a. Use the equation from 2b to forecast

Data Source: https://www.dhs.gov/immigration-statistics/yearbook/2021 Question 3. Forecasting (see Example on left, and answer in Exercise Area on right) a. Use the equation from 2b to forecast for the Year 2022 Answer: b. Use the Excel function to forecast for the Year 2022 Answer: c. Look at Year 2003 - is this above or below "trend"? By how much? Answer: d. Why might forecasting this data be useful to policymakers? Answer: e. Under what conditions might forecasting be less helpful? Answer: Example calculations Exercise Persons Obtaining Lawful Permanent Resident Status: Fiscal Years 1980 to 2021 Refugee Arrivals, Fiscal Years 1980-2021 Year Number Year Number 2021 740,002 2021 11,454 2020 707,362 2020 11,840 2019 1,031,765 Intercept: -17,840,473 2019 29,916 2018 1,096,611 Slope: 9,375 2018 22,405 2017 1,127,167 Equation: y = 9,375t - 17,840,473 2017 53,691 2016 1,183,505 2016 84,989 2015 1,051,031 Forecast 2015 69,920 2014 1,016,518 Year 2022 2014 69,975 2013 990,553 Using equation 1,115,849 2013 69,909 2012 1,031,631 Using excel function 1,115,849 2012 58,179 2011 1,062,040 2011 56,384 2010 1,042,625 Year 2003 2010 73,293 2009 1,130,818 Using equation 937,724 2009 74,602 2008 1,107,126 Using excel function 937,724 2008 60,107 2007 1,052,415 Projected minus actual 234,182 2007 48,218 2006 1,266,129 Year 2040 2006

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