DEAR EXPECT, PLEASE ANSWER WITHIN AN HOUR AND SHOW ALL WORK IN EXCEL.

Production end Operatians Manggemant (8ADB 3013) CONFIDENTML Saptembor 2022 Spechal Examviatian SECTION A (60 MARKS) There are THREE (3) question in this section. Answer ALL questions. Question 1 The number of heart surgeries performed at. WN hospital has increased steadily over the past several years. The hospital's administration is seeking the best method to forecast the demand for such surgeries in year 6 . The data for the past 5 years are shown. Six years ago, the forecast for year 1 was 4 surgeries. The hospital's administration is considering the following forecasting methods. i) Exponential smoothing, with =0.6 ii) Three-year moving average iii) Regression model, Y=42.6+3.2X, where Y is the number of surgeries and X is the index for the year. (E.g., X=1 for year 1,X=2 for year 2 , etc) a) If MAD is the performance criterion chosen by the administration, which forecasting method should it choose? (15 marks) b) Determine the best forecast demand in year 6 . (5 marks) (TOTAL: 20 Marks)