Question: Different techniques for analyzing project risk require different input variables and assumptions. The procedure in which a set of key elements affecting the expected value




Different techniques for analyzing project risk require different input variables and assumptions. The procedure in which a set of key elements affecting the expected value are changed to study the effect on the expected value is called analysis. sensitivity scenario Zhi is a risk analyst. She is conducting a sensitivity analysis to evaluate the riskiness of a new project that her company is considering investing in. Her risk analysis report includes the sensitivity curve shown on the graph. NPV (Millions of dollars) o Base Case NPV Base Case | Cost of Capital 9 12 15 COST OF CAPITAL (Percent) 0 3 6 This curve implies that the project is not very sensitive to changes in cost of capital. The project's NPV is likely to if the cost of capital increases to 15%. stay positive become negative Along with the sensitivity analysis, Zhi is including a scenario analysis for the project in her report, giving the probability of the project generating a negative NPV. Her report includes the following information about the scenario analysis: Data Collected Probability Data for z 0.03 0.06 0.09 N Probability (Pj) Outcome 0.4 0.3336 0.3228 0.3121 Pessimistic 0.50 0.6 0.2643 0.2546 0.2451 NPV; -$2.31 million $4.53 million $12.11 million 0.35 0.8 0.2033 0.1949 0.1867 Most likely Optimistic 0.15 1.0 0.1515 0.1446 0.1379 Complete the missing information in Zhi's report: The expected net present value of the project is Standard deviation of the net present value (the -$0.04 million $2.25 million $5.93 million $0.75 million is likely to vary by) million. Complete the missing information in Zhi's report: The expected net present value of the project is Standard deviation of the net present value (the NPV of the project is likely to vary by) million. 5.18 6.35 5.39 5.66
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