Directions:

$$Consider the Happy Jack Scenario to complete this assignment.

$$Make sure to use the nomenclature found in your text for all diagrams.

$1.$ Conduct a proper decision and risk analysis for this scenario. Do the following:

$$List the decisions and the uncertainties and number the nodes in chronological order.

$[$Enter here$]$

$[$Enter here$]$

$[$Enter here$]$

$[$Add as necessary$]$

$$

$$Draw a schematic tree on the Schematic Tree tab that illustrates the order of decisions and uncertainties. Make sure to use the nomenclature found in the Bollywood Movies Case Study PowerPoint for all diagrams.

$$Draw the decision tree on the Decision Tree Tab and add probabilities, outcomes, and values to complete it$.$

$$Verify chronological order. Use Bayesian Revision on the tab below to reverse the order of the probabilities to ensure that the decisions and uncertainties are chronological in the tree.

$$Rollback$.$ Use the rollback procedure to compute expected monetary values of the tree. Do this on the Rollback tab.

$2.$ Justify the two most important actions that you would recommend Happy Jack take based on your decision tree calculations in $1.$

$[$Enter your recommendations here$]$

$3.$ Calculate the maximum amount of money that Happy Jack should pay for perfect control. Show the calculation and explain your calculation process.

Show the changes that perfect control would look like on the decision tree you originally developed by showing those changes on a revised decision tree on the Revised Decision Tree spreadsheet.

$[$Enter Perfect Control Calculation and Process Here$]$