Discussion Questions 1. Develop a forecasting model, justifying its selection over other forecasting techniques, and project attendance through the 2018-2019 season. 2. What revenues are to be expected in the 2017-2018 and 2018-2019 seasons? 3. Discuss the team's options. Month 2011-2012 2012-2013 2013-2014 34 200 36 100 November 35 900 39 800 40 200 46 500 December Problems Q The immediate issue facing the Lightning, however, is not the championship. It is capacity. The existing Fast Creek arena, built in 1953, has seating for 10 800 fans. The following table indicates total home game attendance each month of the season for the past six years. One of Beauchamp's demands on joining the Lightning had been a new arena. With attendance increasing, Lightning executives and city officials have begun to face the issue head-on. Beauchamp would like a state-of-the-art training facility solely for his players as an additional feature of any expansion. The Lightning's owner, Keith MacLennan, has decided it is time for his vice-president of development to forecast when the existing arena will "max out". The expansion is, in his mind, a given. But MacLennan needs to know how long he could wait. He also seeks a revenue projection, assuming an average ticket price of $50 in 2017-2018 and a 5% increase each season in future prices. Discussion Questions Problems Month 2011-2012 2012-2013 2013-2014 November 34 200 36 100 35 900 December 39 800 40 200 46 500 January 38 200 39 100 43 100 February 26 900 25 300 27 900 March 35 100 36 200 39 200 2014-2015 2015-2016 2016-2017 Month Problems Month 2014-2015 2015-2016 2016-2017 November 41 900 42 500 46 900 December 46 100 48 200 50 100 January 43 900 44 200 45 900 February 30 100 33 900 36 300 March 47 800 40 500 49 900 "Every December, Fast Creek hosts a Holiday Classic weekend with special promotions and an old-timers game that draws large crowds A popular week-long winter carnival in nearby Helmsville every February has a negative impact on attendance. Fast Creek Lightning: (B)* Fast Creek is a city in south central Saskatchewan located along the Trans-Canada Highway. Fast Creek has a population of just over 27 000 residents and is a regional hub for the many smaller towns and hundreds of farms in the surrounding area. Fast Creek is a transportation and industrial centre, and has several federal and provincial government offices. Fast Creek is also a sports centre, and its junior hockey team, the Fast Creek Lightning, has a long history of success in the Central Hockey League but has not won a major trophy in close to 10 years. Since the legendary Scotty Beauchamp was hired as head coach in 2011 (in the hopes of winning the elusive league and national championship), total attendance at home games for each month has increased. Prior to Beauchamp's arrival, attendance averaged 25 000 to 29 000 per month (or between 5000 and 5800 tickets for each of the five home games per month). Season ticket sales bumped up by almost 2000 just with the announcement of the new coach's arrival. The Fast Creek Lightning are ready to move to the big time