Question: Distribution Logistics [26] AggTech is revising the forecasting method they are using. Accordingly, they are considering two forecasting methods: - Simple Moving Average with 4

Distribution Logistics

Distribution Logistics [26] AggTech is revising

[26] AggTech is revising the forecasting method they are using. Accordingly, they are considering two forecasting methods: - Simple Moving Average with 4 periods (i.e., SMA(4)) and - Exponential Smoothing with smoothing constant =0.3 (i.e., ExpS(0.3)). They used these methods to calculate the forecasts using last year's monthly data. a) (8) Calculate the forecasts for the months from MAY to NOVEMBER using ExpS(0.3). b) (6) Calculate the mean absolute deviation (MAD) using the errors between MAY and NOVEMBER. c) (6) Calculate the standard error of forecasts for Exp(0.3) using the errors between MAY and NOVEMBER. d) (6) Calculate a 95\% confidence interval for DECEMBER demand using the standard error of forecast for Exponential Smoothing and the forecast 762

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