Question: Do you agree with this post please comment in at least 75 words. Please don't hand write. Thank you. The types of time-series models are:
Do you agree with this post please comment in at least 75 words.
Please don't hand write.
Thank you.
The types of time-series models are: Nave approach, moving averages, exponential smoothing, and trend projection. An associative forecasting model is linear regression. The nave approach is the simplest technique that assumes that the next period will equal to the demand of the most recent period. Moving averages uses an average of data to forecast the upcoming period. Exponential smoothing takes little past data and is weighted by exponential formula. Trend projection uses past data history to set data point to create a trend. Using this trend you are able to project the future slope of the line. Lastly, linear regression is used to compare the relationship between a dependent and an independent variable to find a linear line through data points. I believe any type of business could use time-series forecasting. It is used just to predict the future by past data, which any business from retail to even the stock market could partake in. Associative forecasting is something that real estate and mortgage lenders could use. I have worked in the industry and we used interest rates to predict the housing market and home refinancing. Naive approach is the most cost effective and efficient and it applies last months sales to forecast this months sales. Moving Averages are useful when we can assume market demands will stay fairly steady and so we can use historical data values to generate a forecast. Exponential smoothing is another weighted moving average model that involves little record keeping and is easy to use. Trend projection fits a trend line into a series of historical dad points and projects the line into the future. There are two associative forecasting models: regression and correlation. Regression is the most commonly used forecasting model and is used to develop a model with one independent variable, such as payroll. Correlation analysis is similar to a regression, however, is measures by the linear association between two variables. When it comes to figuring out what types of organizations can use which method most effectively you really have to look at the organizational structure and way of doing business. In some cases, a combination of these methods is really useful to get the benefits of different models. I know that in my organization the nave approach fits well with the business because is it efficient enough to help make different choices and is appropriate to our way of working.
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