Do you think using a trend$-$process model for this data is reasonable? Justify your answer.

Between Linear Regression and Double Exponential Smoothing models which one would you

recommend to be used for forecasting future sales and why? For this, answer these $3$ parts below:

a$.$ Use the following Year $3$ data to perform error analysis to determine the best smoothing

constants for you DES method. One of your error functions should be MSE. Comment on the

values of the smoothing constants you found.

b$.$ Fit a Linear Regression $($LR$)$ model to the given historical data, and use this model to forecast

the sales in Year $3$ and compute its error$($s$).$ One of your error functions should be MSE.

Discuss the advantages$/$disadvantages of using LR as a forecasting model in general.

c$.$ Compare the two models and make your recommendation.

Assignment Report and Excel File:

Prepare a report in MS Word for your assignment and submit it in MS Word format $($do not submit the

PDF version$).$ Your report should have all the necessary figures, tables, sample calculations, formulas and

answers for each question. Your assignment will be marked based on the content of your report. You are

also asked to provide your MS Excel file that you have used to derive your results that you have presented

in vour report. MS Excel file will be used to verify the results in your report.