dont use excell

1. Consider the data for the yearly number of road vehicles using diesel fuel from 2004 through 2011. 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 Year 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 # of vehicles 3,346,355 3.836,399 4,372,042 4.850,837 5,323,478 5.654,350 6.195,898 6,899,420 (a) Using the Microsoft Excel, plot the yearly number of road vehicles using diesel fuel from 2004 through 2011, and verify that the model for linear trend is acceptable. Apply the simple regression technique to forecast the number of vehicles using diesel fuel in year 2012 (b) Use the double exponential smoothing technique, assuming a = 0.15 and p = 0.10, to forecast the number of vehicles using diesel fuel in year 2012. Use the first five periods of data for initialization. That is calculate the values of the intercept S and the slope Gs in year 5. using the simple regression technique (c) Use the forecasts obtained by the simple regression and the double exponential smoothing techniques and plot the actual and forecast values obtained by two techniques mentioned in part fa) for periods 6 through 8 on the same graph. By visual check, indicate which technique (simple regression or double exponential smoothing) you think is giving more accurate forecasts. (d) Compute the mean square error (MSE), mean absolute error (MAD) and mean absolute percent deviation (MAPE) for each of two techniques mentioned in part a) (c), and indicate which technique you think is better for this data set and why. (e) Suppose that at the end of year 2012 the number of vehicles tising diesel fuel turns out to be 7.150.000. Revise the estimates of the double exponential smoothing technique and forecast the number of vehicles using diesel fuel in year 2013