ecast

actual

demand error

$3$Q

$2022215$

$4$Q

$2022210$

$1$Q

$2023220$

$2$Q

$2023255$

$3$Q

$2023245$

$4$Q

$2023240$

$1$Q

$2024280$

$2$Q

$2024260$

$3$Q

$2024$

$1.$ Using the $4-$quarter moving average: What is the forecast for $3$Q $2024,2$Q $2024,1$Q

$2024,$ and $4$Q $2023?$

$2.$ Compute the forecast for $3$Q $2024,2$Q $2024,1$Q $2024,$ and $4$Q $2023$

using exponential smoothing $($start with $4$Q $2023)$ with a smoothing factor of $\mathrm{.}6.$

$3.$ Which forecast method provides a more accurate forecast?

$4.$ Compute the forecast for $3$Q $2024,2$Q $2024,1$Q $2024,$ and $4$Q $2023$

using a weighted moving average technique. The most recent period is weighted at $\mathrm{.}45,$

second most recent at $\mathrm{.}3,$ and $3$rd most recent at $\mathrm{.}2$ and $4$th most recent at $\mathrm{.}05.$

$5.$ Compare the results from $4$ to the results from $1$ and $2.$ Now which forecast provides the

more accurate forecast?

$6.$ If the exponential smoothing is calculated using a smoothing factor of $\mathrm{.}8$ will the forecast

error be smaller or larger?

$7.$ If a company has fixed costs of $$5,300,000$; variable costs of $$735$ per item; and a

projected sales price of $$8000,$ what is the breakeven point for the company?

$8.$ What other piece of information is needed for a company to make a decision on the

breakeven point?

$9.$ What is the recipe card for a product?