ECIS$/$ENGM $607$ R Spring $20241$st $8-$weeks Test $3$

$1$

Problem $-1$: For the Moving Average Forecasting with seasonality problem below $($you can copy the entire table below

into Excel$),$ determine $($in the Excel file$).(40)$

$1.$ The seasonal factors

$2.$ The Moving Average Forecast values

$3.$ Forecasting Errors:

a$.$ MAD and MSE

Hint: Upload the complete solution to the Canvas a few minutes before the due time.

True Actual Forecasting Number of previous

Year Quarter Value Forecast Error periods to consider

$116,709$ n $=3$

$126,365$

$136,469$ Type of Seasonality

$148,166$ Quarterly

$217,157$

$226,964$ Quarter Seasonal Factor

$237,6841$

$248,6242$

$316,8923$

$326,7224$

$337,8491\mathrm{.}000$

$349,5501\mathrm{.}000$

$417,1921\mathrm{.}000$

$427,0221\mathrm{.}000$

$438,1491\mathrm{.}000$

$449,8501\mathrm{.}000$

$517,2921\mathrm{.}000$

$527,1221\mathrm{.}000$

$538,249$

$549,950$

ECIS$/$ENGM $607$ R Spring $20241$st $8-$weeks Test $3$

$2$

Problem $-2$: For the Exponential Smoothing Forecasting problem below $($you can copy the entire table below to

Excel$),$ determine $($in the Excel file$)(45).$

$1.$ The seasonal factors

$2.$ The Exponential Smoothing Forecast values

$3.$ Forecasting Errors:

a$.$ MAD and MSE

Hint: Upload the complete solution to the Canvas.

True Actual Forecasting

Year Quarter Value Forecast Error Type of Seasonality

$114,324$ Quarterly

$124,169$

$134,216\backslash$alpha $0\mathrm{.}4$

$144,980$

$214,526$ Quarter Seasonal Factor

$224,4391$

$234,7632$

$245,1863$

$314,4064$

$324,3301$

$334,837$ Initial

value $4,600$

$345,603$

Problem $3$: $(15)$ Please write the answers on a separate tab in the same Excel file.

$1.$ When would you use the Last Value method of forecasting vs$.$ the Moving Average with seasonality method of

forecast?

$2.$ What role does the value of alpha play in the Exponential Smoothing with seasonality method of forecast?

$3.$ Name two main factors that influence your choice of the forecasting method.

$4.$ The consumer marketing survey method is a top$-$down approach to forecasting. $($T $/$ F$)$

$5.$ Linear regression is the same as time$-$series forecasting. $($ T $/$ F$)$

Bonus $(2$ total$)$

$1.$ How do you use the linear regression method to obtain forecast?

$2.$ Is judgmental forecasting used only when statistical forecasting methods cannot be used $($Y$/$N$)?$ Explain.