4.1 Introduction EVA, as a method to help investors analyze the internal value of enterprises and decide

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4.1 Introduction

EVA, as a method to help investors analyze the internal value of enterprises and decide the investment plan, is not only to analyze the historical financial data of enterprises, but also to analyze the operating performance of enterprises. It is more important to predict the sustainability of business performance. In order to get a correct estimation method of Guizhou Maotai's EVA value, we need to have a correct method to calculate the EVA value of Guizhou. This paper selects the data of all annual reports of Maotai from 2000 to 2020. The sample space is large and representative, which can make the research more general and representative.

4.2 data sources and definition of main financial parameters

In the calculation of EVA, this paper not only uses the financial data of listed companies over the years, but also uses many financial parameters. The quality of data directly determines the credibility of the research results. This chapter will list the sources of data, as well as the criteria and reasons for the definition of financial parameters.

(1) The financial statement data comes from the (wind) financial database; NOPAT, which needs to be calculated in advance in the calculation of EVA, is based on the financial statement data.

(2) Risk free rate of return = the basic interest rate of 1-year deposit of the central bank. The reason for this arrangement is that considering the idle funds of liquor enterprises, if we make multi-year deposits or purchase multi-year treasury bonds, we will not only face the problem of liquidity, but also face the loss of interest spread in the channel of interest rate rise. So we set the risk-free rate of return as the one-year benchmark deposit rate.

(3) The cost rate of debt capital = the basic interest rate of one-year loan of the central bank. We use the one-year benchmark loan interest rate to calculate the cost of debt. This is because the liquor industry does not have a large number of fixed assets investment, and the cash flow is abundant, the production period is short, and the inventory turnover is fast, so there is usually no need for long-term loans. At the same time, through the observation of Guizhou Maotai's financial statements, the author finds that the company uses the method of issuing additional shares instead of long-term loans or issuing long-term corporate bonds, so the debt of Guizhou Maotai is mainly short-term debt. It's important to note that this

The original data is from the central bank website, but the author finds that the interest rate changes frequently in some years. Therefore, this paper makes a certain adjustment to the interest rate. Aiming at the phenomenon that the benchmark loan interest rate of the central bank changes many times in a year, the author uses the time weighted average method to calculate, and strives to reflect the weighted average bank loan cost in the first half of each year and the whole year.

Beta coefficient = the average beta value in the last 60 months. In the later calculation of the cost of equity, we need to use the beta coefficient. This paper thinks that we should use the long-term beta coefficient instead of the current year's beta coefficient every year. This is because we estimate the long-term equity cost from the perspective of long-term investment shareholders. The beta coefficient of the longest term in the database is the latest 60 months, but the author thinks that the value is enough to reflect the long-term fluctuation of the stock market, because China's stock market has experienced a relatively complete bull bear cycle in the past 60 months.

(5) The average market rate of return = 11.5%. Market average return refers to the super long-term market return since the establishment of China's stock market. The data is from the wind database. In calculating the capital cost of each year, we use the long-term market average rate of return, instead of using the market average rate of return of each year. This is because the evaluation object of this paper is the total market value of Maotai in Guizhou. From the perspective of large shareholders, these investments are long-term, and the occupation of equity capital is also long-term The market average rate of return based on the reference standard should also be the multi-year average.

4.3 income statement assumptions

In the future performance analysis of Guizhou Maotai, the basis of prediction should be based on the previous data for reasonable analysis, so as to ensure the accuracy of the forecast data as far as possible. From the previous data, it can be seen that the operating revenue of Maotai in Guizhou Province has always been rising continuously, but the increase degree is different every year. In order to ensure the rationality of the forecast. In this paper, the average growth rate of the last three years is used to predict the operating revenue of Maotai, Guizhou. (it is worth noting that Guizhou Maotai is the best enterprise in China's liquor industry, and its stock market value has reached trillion Yuan. The liquor industry is different from other industries. Although it is neither a sunset industry nor a new industry, its products will not be eliminated due to the passage of time. On the contrary, the earlier the product is produced, the more popular it is. Therefore, the forecast of Guizhou Maotai's income is based on the sustainable growth model

For operating costs, operating costs increase with the increase of operating revenue. Therefore, this paper forecasts the operating cost of Guizhou Maotai in the next three years by the average ratio (total operating cost / total operating revenue) of Guizhou Maotai in the last three years.

For business tax, sales expenses, administrative expenses and other financial expenses, this paper also uses the percentage of each data in the operating revenue to forecast. However, there is one difference between the forecast of operating revenue and operating cost, that is, we use the ratio of the latest annual report to forecast the four items, rather than the three-year average. The main reason is that the data nature of these expenses is different from that of operating income and cost. Both operating revenue and cost are predicted by corresponding historical data, but these expenses are based on the link between operating revenue and operating cost, not based on the changes in the growth rate of these expenses in the past. In addition, sales expenses, business taxes, management fees and other financial expenses account for a relatively stable proportion of operating revenue each year, and there will not be too much fluctuation. Therefore, the forecast of these factors in this paper will refer to the corresponding proportion of operating revenue in 2019.

For the data of asset impairment loss, although from the historical data, the fluctuation range of this data is very obvious, and its trend is not related to the rise and fall of operating income. Considering that the value of asset impairment loss is small, its change will not have a great impact on the prediction of no-par, this paper determines that the prediction of asset impairment loss is 0

For other operating net income, the data of Guizhou Maotai from 2017 to 2019 tends to be stable. In order to ensure the accuracy of the forecast, this paper selects the average value of 2017-2019 as the forecast data for other operating net income of Guizhou Maotai. Since the business income tax is set at 25% after 2008, the income tax rate is still 25% in this paper.

4.4 income forecast of non operating activities

The main non operating income of Guizhou Maotai comes from other non operating income. Therefore, this paper forecasts the changes in the next three years by the average value of other non operating income in Guizhou Maotai in recent three years. Income tax on non operating profits will remain at 25%.

The total after tax profit can be obtained by combining the income from non operating activities and after tax operating profit

Total profit after tax = operating profit after tax + income from non operating activities

For the non recurring profit and loss and interest expense, this paper uses the three-year mean value as the prediction method.

4.5 IC prediction

In order to forecast IC, we need to forecast the five components of IC calculation: net assets; minority shareholders' equity; total interest bearing debt; excess cash; non operating assets.

For the net assets and minority shareholders' equity, from the historical data, they all maintain the trend of increasing year by year, and the growth rate is relatively stable. This paper uses the method of calculating the average growth rate of the last three years to forecast the net assets and minority shareholders' equity. Because Guizhou Maotai maintains sufficient cash flow all the year round, it does not need debt to maintain the company's daily operation. Under these considerations, interest bearing debt will not be considered in the forecast, and the value of interest bearing debt will remain 0. For excess cash and non operating assets, the average value of the last three years is predicted. The main reason is that these two items are not increasing year by year and there are certain fluctuations. The arithmetic average method can reduce the deviation of the estimate as much as possible. According to the calculation formula of IC: net assets + minority shareholders' equity + total interest bearing debt - Excess Cash - non operating assets = IC investment capital.

4.6 WACC prediction

Debt capital forecast: in this step, as Guizhou Maotai has sufficient cash flow in recent years, and there is no debt. This paper assumes that there will be no debt in Maotai, Guizhou in the next three years, that is, short-term debt, long-term debt and bonds payable are 0