Event Prior Probabilities P$($Event$)$ New Information Conditional Probability P$($Excess supply $|$ Event$)$

EPS exceeds consensus $0\mathrm{.}550\mathrm{.}25$

EPS meets consensus $0\mathrm{.}300\mathrm{.}35$

EPS falls short of consensus $0\mathrm{.}150\mathrm{.}40$

Based solely on the information above, the updated probability that the current quarter's EPS fell short of the consensus estimate is approximately:

a$.6\%$

b$.20\%$

c$.15\%$