Exam4 500E SI'97 Consider the attached data file Exxon CTE5 Problem1 These data represent monthly prices of shares in Exxon from January 1995 through December 2005 The column Date contains the dates with the year, the month and the last day of the month, where 19950131 means the 31st day of January in 1995 Prepare an appropriate time series model to forecast Exxon share prices Describe the reasoning behind your selected model Please make sure that you attach all relevant Excel PHStat outputs and that you explain them thoroughly Date Exxon Price 19950131 62 5 19950228 64 6250001 19950331 67 4072897 19950428 70 3160471 19950531 72 971869 19950630 72 2050893 19950731 74 1220386 19950831 71 0549197 19950929 74 6722611 19951031 78 9355564 19951130 80 744227 19951229 84 6575175 19960131 83 7444164 19960229 83 7444164 19960329 85 8511941 19960430 89 5380551 19960531 90 1068852 19960628 92 3662023 19960731 87 4488651 19960830 87 4913935 19960930 89 370043 19961031 95 1401808 19961129 102 160962 19961231 106 085026 19970131 112 17409 19970228 109 375827 19970331 117 558557 19970430 123 559226 19970530 130 181782 19970630 134 576104 19970731 141 167586 19970829 135 339617 19970930 141 698782 19971031 135 892588 19971128 135 831762 19971231 136 249277 19980130 132 074121 19980227 142 868293 19980331 151 552444 19980430 163 738268 19980529 158 914362 19980630 160 886704 19980731 158 350836 19980831 148 427142 19980930 160 193572 19981030 162 4618 19981130 171 047041 19981231 166 770865 19990129 160 214062 19990226 152 739306 19990331 161 918006 19990430 190 601445 19990528 184 227985 19990630 177 885238 19990730 183 074758 19990831 182 867177 19990930 176 201654 19991029 171 709671 19991130 184 901611 19991231 187 815742 20000131 194 518243 20000229 176 602166 20000331 182 757594 20000428 182 171363 20000531 196 393334 20000630 185 048782 20000731 188 584746 20000831 193 45259 20000929 211 227713 20001031 211 375839 20001130 209 604252 20001229 207 073519 20010131 200 43407 20010228 194 098308 20010330 193 978561 20010430 212 179015 20010531 213 591949 20010629 210 270741 20010731 201 051081 20010831 194 407166 20010928 190 77565 20011031 191 017748 20011130 182 205272 20011231 191 461678 20020131 190 243729 20020228 202 325789 20020328 214 720094 20020430 196 789993 20020531 196 741015 20020628 201 61888 20020731 181 121946 20020830 175 800639 20020930 158 195774 20021031 166 923818 20021129 173 717803 20021231 174 416665 20030131 170 473085 20030228 170 972269 20030331 175 646116 20030430 176 902526 20030530 184 189707 20030630 181 710222 20030731 180 04038 20030829 192 032945 20030930 186 42985 20031031 186 327993 20031128 185 665805 20031231 210 28447 20040130 209 207408 20040227 217 567484 20040331 214 575103 20040430 219 528022 20040528 224 532542 20040630 230 554686 20040730 240 366625 20040831 240 730026 20040930 252 374903 20041029 257 022399 20041130 269 032785 20041231 269 085271 20050131 270 870074 20050228 333 758145 20050331 314 199723 20050429 300 65118 20050531 297 804414 20050630 304 53416 20050729 311 316887 20050831 318 947471 20050930 338 32925 20051031 298 926716 20051130 310 534484 20051230 300 581109

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Question: Exam4-500E-SI'97 Consider the attached data file Exxon-CTE5-Problem1. These data represent monthly prices of shares in Exxon from January 1995 through December 2005. The column Date

Exam4-500E-SI'97

Consider the attached data file "Exxon-CTE5-Problem1". These data represent monthly prices of shares in Exxon from January 1995 through December 2005. The column Date contains the dates with the year, the month and the last day of the month, where 19950131 means the 31st day of January in 1995.

Prepare an appropriate time-series model to forecast Exxon share prices. Describe the reasoning behind your selected model. Please make sure that you attach all relevant Excel/PHStat outputs and that you explain them thoroughly.

Date	Exxon Price
19950131	62.5
19950228	64.6250001
19950331	67.4072897
19950428	70.3160471
19950531	72.971869
19950630	72.2050893
19950731	74.1220386
19950831	71.0549197
19950929	74.6722611
19951031	78.9355564
19951130	80.744227
19951229	84.6575175
19960131	83.7444164
19960229	83.7444164
19960329	85.8511941
19960430	89.5380551
19960531	90.1068852
19960628	92.3662023
19960731	87.4488651
19960830	87.4913935
19960930	89.370043
19961031	95.1401808
19961129	102.160962
19961231	106.085026
19970131	112.17409
19970228	109.375827
19970331	117.558557
19970430	123.559226
19970530	130.181782
19970630	134.576104
19970731	141.167586
19970829	135.339617
19970930	141.698782
19971031	135.892588
19971128	135.831762
19971231	136.249277
19980130	132.074121
19980227	142.868293
19980331	151.552444
19980430	163.738268
19980529	158.914362
19980630	160.886704
19980731	158.350836
19980831	148.427142
19980930	160.193572
19981030	162.4618
19981130	171.047041
19981231	166.770865
19990129	160.214062
19990226	152.739306
19990331	161.918006
19990430	190.601445
19990528	184.227985
19990630	177.885238
19990730	183.074758
19990831	182.867177
19990930	176.201654
19991029	171.709671
19991130	184.901611
19991231	187.815742
20000131	194.518243
20000229	176.602166
20000331	182.757594
20000428	182.171363
20000531	196.393334
20000630	185.048782
20000731	188.584746
20000831	193.45259
20000929	211.227713
20001031	211.375839
20001130	209.604252
20001229	207.073519
20010131	200.43407
20010228	194.098308
20010330	193.978561
20010430	212.179015
20010531	213.591949
20010629	210.270741
20010731	201.051081
20010831	194.407166
20010928	190.77565
20011031	191.017748
20011130	182.205272
20011231	191.461678
20020131	190.243729
20020228	202.325789
20020328	214.720094
20020430	196.789993
20020531	196.741015
20020628	201.61888
20020731	181.121946
20020830	175.800639
20020930	158.195774
20021031	166.923818
20021129	173.717803
20021231	174.416665
20030131	170.473085
20030228	170.972269
20030331	175.646116
20030430	176.902526
20030530	184.189707
20030630	181.710222
20030731	180.04038
20030829	192.032945
20030930	186.42985
20031031	186.327993
20031128	185.665805
20031231	210.28447
20040130	209.207408
20040227	217.567484
20040331	214.575103
20040430	219.528022
20040528	224.532542
20040630	230.554686
20040730	240.366625
20040831	240.730026
20040930	252.374903
20041029	257.022399
20041130	269.032785
20041231	269.085271
20050131	270.870074
20050228	333.758145
20050331	314.199723
20050429	300.65118
20050531	297.804414
20050630	304.53416
20050729	311.316887
20050831	318.947471
20050930	338.32925
20051031	298.926716
20051130	310.534484
20051230	300.581109

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