Example: Return on a portfolio may be roughly categorized into three levels: high, medium, and low. If the return is high (0.3), an investor is expected to have a total return of $300,000. if the return is medium (0.5), the investor is expected to have $100,000 in return. if the return is low (0.2), the investor is expected to loose $100,000. Alternatively, the investor can invest in Treasury bonds and have a guaranteed return of $150,000. The investor is considering to hire a financial adviser, who can provide information about the market and help reduce risk. The adviser has suggested that the return on the portfolio would be a tossup, i.e., 50% of chance with a high return and 50% of chance with a low return. The table below summarizes the financial adviser's past performance. The cost for hiring the financial adviser is negligible. Return on the Portfolio Financial Adviser Judgement High Low High 0.6 0 Medium 0.4 0.6 Low 0 0.4

Example: Return on a portfolio may be roughly categorized into three levels: high, medium, and low. If the return is high (0.3), an investor is expected to have a total retum of $300,000. if the retum is medium (0.5), the investor is expected to have $100,000 in return. if the return is low (0.2), the investor is expected to loose $100,000. Alternatively, the investor can invest in Treasury bonds and have a guaranteed return of $150,000. The investor is considering to hire a financial adviser, who can provide information about the market and help reduce risk. The adviser has suggested that the return on the portfolio would be a tossup, i.e., 50% of chance with a high return and 50% of chance with a low return. The table below summarizes the financial adviser's past performance. The cost for hiring the financial adviser is negligible