Excel Assignment #1: Abridged Freemark Abbey Winery Case1 Calculating Probabilities & Creating Spreadsheet Models for Decision Analysis Case In this assignment, you will gain experience using data to calculate probabilities, constructing decision trees, and conducting sensitivity analysis to derive insight for improved decision making. This case is based on an actual decision faced by the management of the Freemark Abbey Winery located in St. Helena, CA. Overview of the Decision A storm is approaching the winery. Management must decide whether to harvest the Riesling grapes immediately or to leave them on the vines through the storm. A light, warm rain sometimes causes a beneficial mold (botrytis cinerea) to from on the grape skins, which results in a highly