Excel File Edit View Insert Format Tools Data Window Help - 6 99% [ Tue 7:49 PM AutoSave OFF histimpl.xls - Compatibility Mode - Saved to my Mac Home Insert Draw Page Layout Formulas Data Review View Table Tell me Share Comments Calibri (Body) v 10 AA = 2 Wrap Text v Number LIX Ex AY- O. Paste BIUVE DVAv Merge & Center $ ~ % Conditional Format Cell Insert Delete Format Sort & Find & Ideas Formatting as Table Styles Filter Select G15 + X V fx A B C D E F G H K L Year V Earnings Yield Dividend Yield S&P 500 Earnings* Dividends * Dividends + Buybacks Change in Earnings Change in Dividends T.Bill Rate T.Bond Rate Bond-Bill 00 1960 5.349 3.41% 58.11 3.10 1.98 2.66% 2.769 .10% 1961 1.719 2.85% 71.59 3.37 2.04 8.60% 2.91% 2.13% 2.35% .22 10 1962 5.81% 3.40% 53.1 3.67 2.15 3.79% 5.21% 2.739 3.85% L.129 11 1963 5.51% 3.13% 75.02 4.13 2.35 12.75% 9.45% 3.12% 1.149 1.02% 12 1964 5.62% 3.05% 34.75 4.76 2.58 15.23% 10.08% 3.54% 1.21 0.67% 13 1965 5.73% 3.06% 92.43 5.30 2.83 11.20% 9.42% 3.93% 4.65% .72 14 1966 5.74% 3.59% 30.33 5.41 2.88 2.23% 1.96% 1.769 4.64% .12 1967 5.66% 3.09% 96.47 5.46 2.98 0.85% 3.37% 4.21% 5.70% 1.49% 16 1968 5.51% 2.93% 103.8 5.72 3.04 4.81% 2.09% 5.219 6.16% 0.95% 17 1969 5.63% 3.52% 92.0 5.10 3.24 6.66% 6.49% 6.58% 7.88% 1.30% 18 1970 5.98% 3.46% 92.15 5.51 3.19 9.72% -1.61% 6.53% 6.50% 0.03% 19 1971 5.46% 3.10% 102.09 5.57 3.16 1.15% 0.74% 4.39% 5.89% 1.50% 20 1972 5.23% 2.70% 118.05 6.17 3.19 10.76% 0.71% 3.84% 6.41% 2.57% 21 1973 8.16% 3.70% 97.55 7.96 3.61 28.93% 13.24% 6.93% 5.90% 0.03% 22 1974 13.64% 5.43% 68.56 9.35 3.72 17.48% 3.14% 8.00% 7.40% 0.60% 23 1975 8.55% 1.14% 90.19 7.71 3.73 17.54% .30% 5.80% .76% 1.96% 24 1976 9.07% 3.93% 107.46 9.75 4.22 26.39% 13.10% 5.08% .81% 1.73% 25 1977 11.43% 5.11% 95.1 10.87 4.86 11.53% 15.07% 5.12% 78% 2.66% 26 1978 12.11% 5.39% 6.11 11.64 5.18 7.07% 6.60 7.18% 9.15% .97% 27 1979 13.48% 5.53% 107.94 14.55 5.97 25.01% 15.23% 10.38% 0.33% 0.05% 28 1980 11.04% 4.74% 135.76 14.99 6.44 3.01% 7.81% 11.24% 12.43% 1. 19% 29 1981 12.39% 5.57% 122.55 15.18 6.83 1.31% 6.08% 4.71% 13.98% 0.73% 30 1982 3.83% 1,93% 140.64 13.82 6.93 8.95% 1.58% 10.549 10.47% 0.079 31 1983 8.06% 4.32% 164.93 13.29 7.12 3.84% 2.76% 8.80% 1.80% 3.00% 32 1984 10.07% 4.68% 167.24 6.84 7.83 26.699 9.85% .85% 1.51 1.66% 33 1985 7.42% 3.88% 211.28 5.68 8.20 6.91% 4.74% 7.72% 3.99% 1.27% 34 1986 5.96%% 3.38% 242.17 4.43 3.19 7.93% 0.15% 5.16% .22% L.06% 35 1987 6.49% .71% 247.08 16.04 9.17 11.10% 11.99% 5.47% 3.86% 3.39% Chart2 Chart3 Sheet17 Implied Premiums implpremvsriskfree Historical Impl Premiums Sheet2 Sheet3 Sheet4 Sheet5 Sheet6 Sheet7 Sheet8 Sheet + + 137% FEB 4 16 W PExcel File Edit View Insert Format Tools Data Window Help - 6 99% [ Tue 7:49 PM AutoSave OFF histimpl.xls - Compatibility Mode - Saved to my Mac Home Insert Draw Page Layout Formulas Data Review View Table Tell me Share Comments Calibri (Body) v 10 AA = 2 Wrap Text v Number EX AP - O. Paste BIU E DVAv Merge & Center $ ~ % " Conditional Format Cell Insert Delete Format Sort & Find & Ideas Formatting as Table Styles Filter Select G15 4 X V fx Year Earnings Yield Dividend Yield S&P 500 Earnings* Dividends* Dividends + Buyback Change in Earnings Change in Dividendde T.Bill Rate T.Bond Rate Bond-Bill 35 1987 .49% 3.71% 247.08 16.04 9.17 11.10% 1.99% 5.47% 8.86% 3.39% 36 1988 3.20% 3.68% 277.72 24.12 10.22 50.42% 1.49% 6.35% 9.14% 2.79% 37 1989 5.80% 3.32% 353.4 24.32 11.73 .83% 14.80% 3.37% 7.93% 0.44% 38 1990 6.58% 3.74% 330.22 22.65 12.35 6.87% 5.26% 7.81% 3.07% 0.26% 39 1991 4.58% 3.11% 417.09 19.30 12.97 14.79% 5.03% 7.00% 5.70% 0.30% 40 1992 4.16% 2.90% 435.71 20.87 12.64 8.13% 2.59% 5.30% 5.68% ..38%% 41 1993 4.25% 2.72% 466.45 6.90 12.69 28.89% .41% 3.50% .79% .29% 42 1994 5.89% 2.91% 459.27 31.75 13.36 18.03% 5.34% 5.00% 7.82% 2.82% 43 1995 5.74% 2.30% 615.93 37.70 14.17 18.74% 6.00% 3.50% 5.57% 2.07% 44 1996 .83% 2.01% 740.74 40.63 14.89 .77% 5.10% 5.009 5.41% 41% 45 1997 4.08% 1.60% 970.43 44.09 15.52 8.52% 4.25% 5.35% 5.74% .39% 46 1998 3.11% .32% 1229.23 14.27 16.20 0.41% 4.37% .33% 1.65% 1.32% 47 1999 3.07% L.14% 1469.25 51.68 16.71 16.74% 3.16% 5.37% 6.44% 1.07% 48 2000 3.94% 1.23% 1320.28 56.13 16.27 8.61% 2.65% 5.73% 5.11% 0.62% 49 2001 3.85% 1.37% 1148.09 38.85 15.74 30.08 30.79% -3.24% 1.80% 5.05% 3.25% 50 2002 5.23% 1.83% 879.82 6.04 6.08 29.83 18.519 2.15% 1.20% 3.81% .61% 51 2003 4.87% 1.61% 1111.91 54.69 17.88 31.58 18.79% 11.19% 1.00% 1.25% 3.25% 52 2004 5.58% 1.60% 1211.92 57.68 19.407 40.60 23.759 8.54% 2.18% 1.22% .04% 53 2005 5.47% 1.79% 1248.29 6.45 22.38 51.17 12.96% 15.32% 4.31% 4.39% .08% 54 2006 6.18% 1.77% 1418.3 87.7 25.05 73.16 14.749% 11.93% 4.88% 4.70% 0.18% 55 2007 5.62% 1.89% 1468.36 82.54 27.73 95.36 5.91% 10.70% 3.31% 4.02% 0.71% 56 2008 7.24% 3.11% 903.25 55.39 28.05 67.52 20.78% 1.15% 1.59% 2.21% .62% 57 2009 5.35% 2.00% 1115.10 59.65 22.31 37.43 8.78% -20.46% .14% 3.84% 3.70% 58 2010 6.65% 1.84% 1257.64 83.66 23.12 55.53 40.25% 3.63% .13% 3.29% 3.16% 59 2011 7.72% 2.07% 1257.60 97.05 26.02 71.28 16.01% 12.54% .03% 1.88% 1.85% 60 2012 7.18% 2.139 1426.19 102.4 30.44 75.90 5.58% 16.99% 0.05% 1.76% L.71% 61 2013 5.81% 1.96% 1848.36 107.45 36.28 88.13 1.86% 19.19% 0.07% 3.04% .97% 62 2014 5.49% 1.929 2058.90 113.01 39.44 01.98 5.179 8.71% .05% 2.17% 2.129 63 2015 5.20% 2.11% 2043.94 106.32 43.16 106.10 5.92% 9.43% 0.21% 2.27% 2.06% 64 2016 4.86% 2.01% 2238.83 108.86 45.03 108.67 2.39% 4.33% 0.51% 2.45% 1.94% Chart2 Chart3 Sheet17 Implied Premiums implpremvsriskfree Historical Impl Premiums Sheet2 Sheet3 Sheet4 Sheet5 Sheet6 Sheet Sheet8 Shee + + 137% FEB 4 8 16 E W PExcel File Edit View Insert Format Tools Data Window Help - e| 99% [ Tue 7:49 PM Q DE Scheduled Backup is in progress. AutoSave OFF histimpl.xls - Compatibility Mode - Saved to my Mac Home Insert Draw Page Layout Formulas Data Review View Table Tell me Share Comments Calibri (Body) v 10 AA = 2 Wrap Text v Number LIX Ex AP- O. DVAv Merge & Center $ ~ % " Conditional Format Cell Insert Delete Format Sort & Find & Ideas Paste BI UV BY Formatting as Table Styles Filter Select G15 4 X V fx Year Earnings Yield Dividend Yield S&P 500 Earnings* Dividends* Dividends + Buybacks Change in Earnings Change in Dividendde T.Bill Rate T.Bond Rate Bond-Bill T.UU J. 1070 55 2007 5.62% 1.89% 1468.36 32.54 27.73 5.91% 10.70% 3.31% 4.02% ).71% 56 2008 7.24% 3.11% 903.25 55.39 28.05 57.52 20.78% 1.15% 1.59% 2.21% .62% 57 2009 5.35% 2.00% 1115.10 59.65 22.31 37.43 8.78% -20.46% .14% 3.84% 3.70% 58 2010 6.65% 1.84% 1257.64 83.66 23.12 55.53 40.25% 3.63% .13% 3.29% 3.16% 59 2011 7.72% 2.07% 1257.60 97.05 26.02 71.28 16.01% 12.54% .03% 1.88% 1.85% 60 2012 7.18% 2.13%% 1426.19 102.47 30.44 75.90 .58% 16.99% 0.05% 1.76% L.719 61 2013 5.81% 1.96%% 1848.36 107.45 36.28 88.13 4.86% 19.19% 0.07% 3.04% .97% 62 2014 5.49% 1.929 2058.90 113.01 39.44 101.98 i.17% 3.71% 0.05% 2.17% 2.129 63 2015 5.20% 2.11% 2043.94 106.3 43.16 106.10 5.92% 9.43% .21% 2.27% 2.06% 64 2016 4.86% 2238.83 108.86 45.03 108.67 2.39% 4.33% 0.51% 2.45% 1.94% 2.01% 65 2017 4.67% 1.86% 2673.61 124.94 49.73 108.28 14.77% 10.44% 1,39% 2.41% 1.02% 66 2018 5.92% 2.14% 2506.85 148.34 53.61 136.65 18.73% 7.80% 2.37% 2.68% 0.31% 67 2019 5.03% 1.82% 3230.78 162.35 58.80 150.50 9.449 9.68% 1.550 1.92% 0.37% 68 2020 3.68% 1.51% 3756.07 138.12 56.70 127.78 14.92% -3.57% 0.09% 0.93% ).84% 69 * Earnings and dividends numbers each year reflect the estimated numbers as of the end of the year. These numbers get updated later in the year but I do not update the numbers in this spreadsheet, since 70 71 Period ERP ERP + Riskfree Rate 72 1960-2020 4.21% 10.06% 73 2001-2020 4.95% 8.01% 74 2011-2020 5.53% 7.68% 75 End of 2020 4.72% 5.65% 76 77 Chart2 Chart3 Sheet17 Implied Premiums implpremvsriskfree Historical Impl Premiums Sheet2 Sheet3 Sheet4 Sheet5 Sheet6 Sheet7 Sheet8 Shee + + 137% FEB 4 16 4 W P