Question: Exercise 18-23 Static Treasury securities are bonds issued by the U.S. government. Consider a portion of quarterly data on treasury securities, measured in millions of
Exercise 18-23 Static
Treasury securities are bonds issued by the U.S. government. Consider a portion of quarterly data on treasury securities, measured in millions of U.S. dollars.
a-1. Estimate the exponential trend model with seasonal dummy variables.Report the coefficient for trend t. (Round your answers to 3 decimal places.) a-2. Use the estimated model to forecast to make a forecast for the fourth quarter of 2018. (Do not round coefficient estimates. Round final answer to the nearest whole number.)
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| Year | Quarter | Securities |
| 2010 | 1 | 927527 |
| 2010 | 2 | 1038881 |
| 2010 | 3 | 1000829 |
| 2010 | 4 | 1048601 |
| 2011 | 1 | 935623 |
| 2011 | 2 | 747999 |
| 2011 | 3 | 629502 |
| 2011 | 4 | 626883 |
| 2012 | 1 | 705854 |
| 2012 | 2 | 754613 |
| 2012 | 3 | 717374 |
| 2012 | 4 | 874749 |
| 2013 | 1 | 937986 |
| 2013 | 2 | 1081316 |
| 2013 | 3 | 1093418 |
| 2013 | 4 | 1101723 |
| 2014 | 1 | 975095 |
| 2014 | 2 | 797095 |
| 2014 | 3 | 767218 |
| 2014 | 4 | 748575 |
| 2015 | 1 | 811307 |
| 2015 | 2 | 935765 |
| 2015 | 3 | 1044943 |
| 2015 | 4 | 1141121 |
| 2016 | 1 | 1153108 |
| 2016 | 2 | 1092073 |
| 2016 | 3 | 1161773 |
| 2016 | 4 | 1446411 |
| 2017 | 1 | 1386055 |
| 2017 | 2 | 1478017 |
| 2017 | 3 | 1343458 |
| 2017 | 4 | 1477573 |
| 2018 | 1 | 1899137 |
| 2018 | 2 | 1977311 |
| 2018 | 3 | 2284572 |
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