Exhibit 9: Summary of Analyst Assumptions and Forecasts for Snap in 2020 (see Note 1 below)...
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Exhibit 9: Summary of Analyst Assumptions and Forecasts for Snap in 2020 (see Note 1 below) Analyst (s) From Independent Firms Pivotal Aegis Capital Susquehanna FBN Cantor Piper Jaffray Lead Underwriter Morgan Stanley Lead Managers JP Morgan Deutsche Bank Credit Suisse Other Underwriters Cowen & Co JMP Securities Oppenheimer RBC Capital UBS William Blair Average Median Report Date 2-Mar-17 2-Mar-17 3-Mar-17 9-Mar-17 14-Mar-17 22-Mar-17 27-Mar-17 27-Mar-17 27-Mar-17 27-Mar-17 27-Mar-17 27-Mar-17 27-Mar-17 27-Mar-17 27-Mar-17 27-Mar-17 Maximum Minimum Standard Deviation Coeff. of Variation (Note 2) Price Target Discount Rate WACC $10 12.0% $22 13.4% $22 6.0% 3.0% n/a n/a $23 10.3% 4.5% $18 12.0% 4.0% $23 10.7% (2.0%) $28 9.7% $24 13.0% 15.7% $30 $30 11.0% $26 10.0% $28 15.0% range $31 $24 range n/a 11.0% 18.0% 10.0% TV Growth Rate $24.2 12.3% $24.0 11.5% $31.0 18.0% $10.0 9.7% $5.5 2.5% 0.23 0.20 3.5% 3.5% n/a 3.0% n/a n/a n/a 5.0% Revenue $3,863 $4,500 n/a $4,816 $6,248 $6,396 $4,902 $6,808 $5,126 $4,634 $5,204 $4,965 $5,649 $4,621 n/a $5,269 n/a $4,654 3.4% $5,177 3.5% $4,965 6.0% $6,808 (2.0%) $3,863 2.2% $795 0.66 0.15 Analyst Forecast for 2020 DAU n/a 250 280 369 346 289 289 n/a 281 n/a 332 n/a ARPU 236 $20.72 293.7 285.1 369.0 236.0 38.3 n/a n/a 0.13 $21.24 $14.09 $18.92 $22.41 299 $1,026 $21.30 272 $18.06 $1,275 281 $17.02 $351 $18.16 n/a $18.89 n/a $16.70 n/a $18.86 $18.89 Free Cash Flow (FCF) $22.41 $14.09 $2.44 0.13 ($178) $605 $357 ($592) $398 $253 ($243) $351 $634 $953 $391 $442 n/a $402 $391 $1,275 ($592) $487 1.21 c. The free cash flow forecast in general and Snap's 2020 revenue forecast in particular. (15 points) - What growth rates does the FCF forecast assume for revenue? (Hint: not terminal value but the first years of FCF) - Discuss how Nowak's report argues that Snap will accomplish this growth. - In your opinion, is this growth rate reasonable? Discuss why. How does the revenue forecast compare against what other analysts have predicted? - Did the analysts with more optimistic FCF forecasts use higher or lower discount rates? (Show a table as well as discuss) - Does this explain why the price target estimates by the different analysts was fairly close even though they had very different FCF forecasts? Explain. Exhibit 9: Summary of Analyst Assumptions and Forecasts for Snap in 2020 (see Note 1 below) Analyst (s) From Independent Firms Pivotal Aegis Capital Susquehanna FBN Cantor Piper Jaffray Lead Underwriter Morgan Stanley Lead Managers JP Morgan Deutsche Bank Credit Suisse Other Underwriters Cowen & Co JMP Securities Oppenheimer RBC Capital UBS William Blair Average Median Report Date 2-Mar-17 2-Mar-17 3-Mar-17 9-Mar-17 14-Mar-17 22-Mar-17 27-Mar-17 27-Mar-17 27-Mar-17 27-Mar-17 27-Mar-17 27-Mar-17 27-Mar-17 27-Mar-17 27-Mar-17 27-Mar-17 Maximum Minimum Standard Deviation Coeff. of Variation (Note 2) Price Target Discount Rate WACC $10 12.0% $22 13.4% $22 6.0% 3.0% n/a n/a $23 10.3% 4.5% $18 12.0% 4.0% $23 10.7% (2.0%) $28 9.7% $24 13.0% 15.7% $30 $30 11.0% $26 10.0% $28 15.0% range $31 $24 range n/a 11.0% 18.0% 10.0% TV Growth Rate $24.2 12.3% $24.0 11.5% $31.0 18.0% $10.0 9.7% $5.5 2.5% 0.23 0.20 3.5% 3.5% n/a 3.0% n/a n/a n/a 5.0% Revenue $3,863 $4,500 n/a $4,816 $6,248 $6,396 $4,902 $6,808 $5,126 $4,634 $5,204 $4,965 $5,649 $4,621 n/a $5,269 n/a $4,654 3.4% $5,177 3.5% $4,965 6.0% $6,808 (2.0%) $3,863 2.2% $795 0.66 0.15 Analyst Forecast for 2020 DAU n/a 250 280 369 346 289 289 n/a 281 n/a 332 n/a ARPU 236 $20.72 293.7 285.1 369.0 236.0 38.3 n/a n/a 0.13 $21.24 $14.09 $18.92 $22.41 299 $1,026 $21.30 272 $18.06 $1,275 281 $17.02 $351 $18.16 n/a $18.89 n/a $16.70 n/a $18.86 $18.89 Free Cash Flow (FCF) $22.41 $14.09 $2.44 0.13 ($178) $605 $357 ($592) $398 $253 ($243) $351 $634 $953 $391 $442 n/a $402 $391 $1,275 ($592) $487 1.21 Exhibit 9: Summary of Analyst Assumptions and Forecasts for Snap in 2020 (see Note 1 below) Analyst (s) From Independent Firms Pivotal Aegis Capital Susquehanna FBN Cantor Piper Jaffray Lead Underwriter Morgan Stanley Lead Managers JP Morgan Deutsche Bank Credit Suisse Other Underwriters Cowen & Co JMP Securities Oppenheimer RBC Capital UBS William Blair Average Median Report Date 2-Mar-17 2-Mar-17 3-Mar-17 9-Mar-17 14-Mar-17 22-Mar-17 27-Mar-17 27-Mar-17 27-Mar-17 27-Mar-17 27-Mar-17 27-Mar-17 27-Mar-17 27-Mar-17 27-Mar-17 27-Mar-17 Maximum Minimum Standard Deviation Coeff. of Variation (Note 2) Price Target Discount Rate WACC $10 12.0% $22 13.4% $22 6.0% 3.0% n/a n/a $23 10.3% 4.5% $18 12.0% 4.0% $23 10.7% (2.0%) $28 9.7% $24 13.0% 15.7% $30 $30 11.0% $26 10.0% $28 15.0% range $31 $24 range n/a 11.0% 18.0% 10.0% TV Growth Rate $24.2 12.3% $24.0 11.5% $31.0 18.0% $10.0 9.7% $5.5 2.5% 0.23 0.20 3.5% 3.5% n/a 3.0% n/a n/a n/a 5.0% Revenue $3,863 $4,500 n/a $4,816 $6,248 $6,396 $4,902 $6,808 $5,126 $4,634 $5,204 $4,965 $5,649 $4,621 n/a $5,269 n/a $4,654 3.4% $5,177 3.5% $4,965 6.0% $6,808 (2.0%) $3,863 2.2% $795 0.66 0.15 Analyst Forecast for 2020 DAU n/a 250 280 369 346 289 289 n/a 281 n/a 332 n/a ARPU 236 $20.72 293.7 285.1 369.0 236.0 38.3 n/a n/a 0.13 $21.24 $14.09 $18.92 $22.41 299 $1,026 $21.30 272 $18.06 $1,275 281 $17.02 $351 $18.16 n/a $18.89 n/a $16.70 n/a $18.86 $18.89 Free Cash Flow (FCF) $22.41 $14.09 $2.44 0.13 ($178) $605 $357 ($592) $398 $253 ($243) $351 $634 $953 $391 $442 n/a $402 $391 $1,275 ($592) $487 1.21 Exhibit 9: Summary of Analyst Assumptions and Forecasts for Snap in 2020 (see Note 1 below) Analyst (s) From Independent Firms Pivotal Aegis Capital Susquehanna FBN Cantor Piper Jaffray Lead Underwriter Morgan Stanley Lead Managers JP Morgan Deutsche Bank Credit Suisse Other Underwriters Cowen & Co JMP Securities Oppenheimer RBC Capital UBS William Blair Average Median Report Date 2-Mar-17 2-Mar-17 3-Mar-17 9-Mar-17 14-Mar-17 22-Mar-17 27-Mar-17 27-Mar-17 27-Mar-17 27-Mar-17 27-Mar-17 27-Mar-17 27-Mar-17 27-Mar-17 27-Mar-17 27-Mar-17 Maximum Minimum Standard Deviation Coeff. of Variation (Note 2) Price Target Discount Rate WACC $10 12.0% $22 13.4% $22 6.0% 3.0% n/a n/a $23 10.3% 4.5% $18 12.0% 4.0% $23 10.7% (2.0%) $28 9.7% $24 13.0% 15.7% $30 $30 11.0% $26 10.0% $28 15.0% range $31 $24 range n/a 11.0% 18.0% 10.0% TV Growth Rate $24.2 12.3% $24.0 11.5% $31.0 18.0% $10.0 9.7% $5.5 2.5% 0.23 0.20 3.5% 3.5% n/a 3.0% n/a n/a n/a 5.0% Revenue $3,863 $4,500 n/a $4,816 $6,248 $6,396 $4,902 $6,808 $5,126 $4,634 $5,204 $4,965 $5,649 $4,621 n/a $5,269 n/a $4,654 3.4% $5,177 3.5% $4,965 6.0% $6,808 (2.0%) $3,863 2.2% $795 0.66 0.15 Analyst Forecast for 2020 DAU n/a 250 280 369 346 289 289 n/a 281 n/a 332 n/a ARPU 236 $20.72 293.7 285.1 369.0 236.0 38.3 n/a n/a 0.13 $21.24 $14.09 $18.92 $22.41 299 $1,026 $21.30 272 $18.06 $1,275 281 $17.02 $351 $18.16 n/a $18.89 n/a $16.70 n/a $18.86 $18.89 Free Cash Flow (FCF) $22.41 $14.09 $2.44 0.13 ($178) $605 $357 ($592) $398 $253 ($243) $351 $634 $953 $391 $442 n/a $402 $391 $1,275 ($592) $487 1.21 Exhibit 9: Summary of Analyst Assumptions and Forecasts for Snap in 2020 (see Note 1 below) Analyst (s) From Independent Firms Pivotal Aegis Capital Susquehanna FBN Cantor Piper Jaffray Lead Underwriter Morgan Stanley Lead Managers JP Morgan Deutsche Bank Credit Suisse Other Underwriters Cowen & Co JMP Securities Oppenheimer RBC Capital UBS William Blair Average Median Report Date 2-Mar-17 2-Mar-17 3-Mar-17 9-Mar-17 14-Mar-17 22-Mar-17 27-Mar-17 27-Mar-17 27-Mar-17 27-Mar-17 27-Mar-17 27-Mar-17 27-Mar-17 27-Mar-17 27-Mar-17 27-Mar-17 Maximum Minimum Standard Deviation Coeff. of Variation (Note 2) Price Target Discount Rate WACC $10 12.0% $22 13.4% $22 6.0% 3.0% n/a n/a $23 10.3% 4.5% $18 12.0% 4.0% $23 10.7% (2.0%) $28 9.7% $24 13.0% 15.7% $30 $30 11.0% $26 10.0% $28 15.0% range $31 $24 range n/a 11.0% 18.0% 10.0% TV Growth Rate $24.2 12.3% $24.0 11.5% $31.0 18.0% $10.0 9.7% $5.5 2.5% 0.23 0.20 3.5% 3.5% n/a 3.0% n/a n/a n/a 5.0% Revenue $3,863 $4,500 n/a $4,816 $6,248 $6,396 $4,902 $6,808 $5,126 $4,634 $5,204 $4,965 $5,649 $4,621 n/a $5,269 n/a $4,654 3.4% $5,177 3.5% $4,965 6.0% $6,808 (2.0%) $3,863 2.2% $795 0.66 0.15 Analyst Forecast for 2020 DAU n/a 250 280 369 346 289 289 n/a 281 n/a 332 n/a ARPU 236 $20.72 293.7 285.1 369.0 236.0 38.3 n/a n/a 0.13 $21.24 $14.09 $18.92 $22.41 299 $1,026 $21.30 272 $18.06 $1,275 281 $17.02 $351 $18.16 n/a $18.89 n/a $16.70 n/a $18.86 $18.89 Free Cash Flow (FCF) $22.41 $14.09 $2.44 0.13 ($178) $605 $357 ($592) $398 $253 ($243) $351 $634 $953 $391 $442 n/a $402 $391 $1,275 ($592) $487 1.21 c. The free cash flow forecast in general and Snap's 2020 revenue forecast in particular. (15 points) - What growth rates does the FCF forecast assume for revenue? (Hint: not terminal value but the first years of FCF) - Discuss how Nowak's report argues that Snap will accomplish this growth. - In your opinion, is this growth rate reasonable? Discuss why. How does the revenue forecast compare against what other analysts have predicted? - Did the analysts with more optimistic FCF forecasts use higher or lower discount rates? (Show a table as well as discuss) - Does this explain why the price target estimates by the different analysts was fairly close even though they had very different FCF forecasts? Explain. c. The free cash flow forecast in general and Snap's 2020 revenue forecast in particular. (15 points) - What growth rates does the FCF forecast assume for revenue? (Hint: not terminal value but the first years of FCF) - Discuss how Nowak's report argues that Snap will accomplish this growth. - In your opinion, is this growth rate reasonable? Discuss why. How does the revenue forecast compare against what other analysts have predicted? - Did the analysts with more optimistic FCF forecasts use higher or lower discount rates? (Show a table as well as discuss) - Does this explain why the price target estimates by the different analysts was fairly close even though they had very different FCF forecasts? Explain. c. The free cash flow forecast in general and Snap's 2020 revenue forecast in particular. (15 points) - What growth rates does the FCF forecast assume for revenue? (Hint: not terminal value but the first years of FCF) - Discuss how Nowak's report argues that Snap will accomplish this growth. - In your opinion, is this growth rate reasonable? Discuss why. How does the revenue forecast compare against what other analysts have predicted? - Did the analysts with more optimistic FCF forecasts use higher or lower discount rates? (Show a table as well as discuss) - Does this explain why the price target estimates by the different analysts was fairly close even though they had very different FCF forecasts? Explain. c. The free cash flow forecast in general and Snap's 2020 revenue forecast in particular. (15 points) - What growth rates does the FCF forecast assume for revenue? (Hint: not terminal value but the first years of FCF) - Discuss how Nowak's report argues that Snap will accomplish this growth. - In your opinion, is this growth rate reasonable? Discuss why. How does the revenue forecast compare against what other analysts have predicted? - Did the analysts with more optimistic FCF forecasts use higher or lower discount rates? (Show a table as well as discuss) - Does this explain why the price target estimates by the different analysts was fairly close even though they had very different FCF forecasts? Explain.
Expert Answer:
Answer rating: 100% (QA)
c The free cash flow forecast in general and Snaps 2020 revenue forecast in particular 15 points What growth rates does the FCF forecast assume for revenue Hint not terminal value but the first years ... View the full answer
Related Book For
Intermediate Accounting Volume 2
ISBN: 9781260881240
8th Edition
Authors: Thomas H. Beechy, Joan E. Conrod, Elizabeth Farrell, Ingrid McLeod-Dick, Kayla Tomulka, Romi-Lee Sevel
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