Question: Explain using the Bayes Theorem diagram why individual jurors in the OJ Simpson criminal and civil trials are likely to reach opposite verdicts despite hearing

Explain using the Bayes Theorem diagram why individual jurors in the OJ Simpson criminal and civil trials are likely to reach opposite verdicts despite hearing the same evidence during their respective trials. This is related to the idea of

LA = Los Angeles jurors SM = Santa Monica jurors G = OJ is really "Guilty" H = Police "Honestly" collected blood samples b LA (G) and a LA (G) = the before and after probabilities of LA jurors toward OJ being Guilty b SM (G) and a SM (G) = the before and after probabilities of SM jurors toward OJ being Guilty b LA (H) = the before probabilities of LA jurors toward police Honestly collecting blood samples b SM (H) = the before probabilities of SM jurors toward police Honestly collecting blood samples

This implies OJ being guilty (denoted G) is equivalent to the police honestly collecting the blood samples (denoted H), so that G is true if and only if H is true.

b LA (G) = b LA (H) and b SM (G) = b SM (H)

b LA (H) < b SM (H) (2) STEP THREE: Combining implications (1) and (2) together implies: b LA (G) = b LA (H) < b SM (H) = b SM (G)

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