Extra comment: 1) Ignore a trend component and 2) use 0.3 as a parameter and the naive approach for the initial forecast

CASE INTERNATIONAL ARRIVALS The U.S. Department of Transportation publishes the num- ber of international passengers that come through U.S. airports. The busiest airports for international travel are in New York (JFK). Miami (MIA), Los Angeles (LAX), New- nations are London (LHR), Toronto (YYZ). Tokyo (NR). ark (EWR), and Chicago (ORD). The most popular desti- Frankfurt (FRA), and Paris (CDG). Consider the data in the following table and answer these questions: 1. How would you estimate the passenger volume for the coming year? 2. What is the role of trends and seasonality? 3. What other variables do you expect to influence the number of international travelers? Rodrigo A Torres Glow Images JFK Airport in New York, the airport with the most international travelers in the United States Year Month Passengers Year Month 2012 January 13,441,718 2013 January 2012 February 11,942,221 2013 February 2012 2013 March 14,670,996 March 2013 14,286,844 April 2012 April 14.537.314 2013 May 2012 May 2013 June June 2013 July 2012 July 2013 August August September September 2013 October October 2013 November November 2013 December December Passengers 13,970.077 12,230,963 15,447,435 14,507,038 15,516,063 16,487,702 17.954.910 17.786,357 14,408,817 14,374,254 13,258,104 15.182,616 2012 2013 2012 2012 2012 2012 2012 15.906, 101 17,362,586 16,969,528 14,010,920 13,599,030 12,919,746 14,289,105 Source: www.dot.gov