FDA 4 Dec 2020

Question 4 A

Find below the demand for 11 Periods.

Period	Demand
1	138
2	145
3	144
4	146
5	143
6	128
7	150
8	139
9	142
10	147

Calculate:

1. Forecast for period 11 using exponential smoothing using an alpha of 0.05 and assuming your forecast for the first period was 131. [2 marks)

2. 3-month moving average.[2 marks]

3. Compute a weighted average forecast using a weight of .40 for the most recent period, .30 for the next most recent, .20 for the next, and .10 for the next. [3 marks]

4. CFE for the 3 forecast techniques in 1-3 above. (3 marks)

5. TS for the 3 forecast techniques in 1-3 above. (3marks)

6. MAD for the 3 forecast techniques in 1-3 above. (3 marks)

7. MSE for the 3 forecast techniques in 1-3 above. (3 marks)

8. MAPE for the 3 forecast techniques in 1-3 above. (3 marks)