Question: Feel also free to comment on this brief description as well as to share examples from your experience or references to the Televisa case study.
Feel also free to comment on this brief description as well as to share examples from your experience or references to the Televisa case study.I take this opportunity to briefly introduce some concepts related toScenario Analysis, a practice based on formulating reasonable forecasts for the future evolution of an industry. Scenarios are not about prophesying or using the crystal ball, but rather using analytical tools that better prepare the company for uncertain but probable future events, and allow for contingency plans.There are bothquantitative and qualitative scenario models.Examples of the first includes the reports prepared by the OECD or the World Bank on the forecasts for the evolution of the economy in various countries.An example of aqualitativeprospective study is S Huntington's book "The Clash of Civilizations", which provides a personal vision on the evolution of the contested relationship among the Worlds different cultures.According toRG CoyleScenario Thinking and Strategic Modeling; The Oxford Handbook of Strategy, Vol. I; OUP, there are several practices related to the development of scenarios about the future:Econometric modeling systems, based primarily on the projection of past trends towards the future, a practice relying on the fact that major circumstances of a sector and its environment will remain, or if altered major changes may be predictable. It is the practice commonly used by the study units of central banks, multilateral entities and other financial institutions to make macroeconomic forecasts.System Dynamics, a method based on the modeling of large patterns of behavior of the most prominent agents in a sector, based on the causeeffect paradigm and the historical behavior of such agents. It is a method that provides a more qualitative view than econometric models.Deplhi Analysis: It consists of gathering a group of experts and crossing their estimates about the future of a sector the expression refers to the oracle of Delphi in classical Greece It is a method frequently used in the launch of new products.Narrative Studies, which include explorations, global reports such as The Economist's annual publication "The World in and even virtual stories that analyze how the world would be like if events had occurred in a way alternative to how they happened dystopias and "history as ifScenarios, a forecast of future facts, justified but arguable, envisioning a plausible picture of the future. The complexity of the scenarios varies depending on the variables included in the study. The pioneer company running scenario planning was Royal Dutch Shell through its strategic development department.From a less sophisticated perspective, some analysts speak of three types of scenarios: optimistic, pessimistic and medium, ranging different outcomes and performance.
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