Fixed cost: Bottom-up calculations show that total fixed costs could vary anywhere from $2.0 billion to $2.6 billion with a likeliest value of $2.3 billion. Year 1 Variable production cost: This cost, which includes all variable production costs required to build a single car, is expected to be normally distributed in the first year of production with a mean of $7,800 and a standard deviation of $600. Variable production cost Inflation Factor: After the first year, variable costs will inflate in each year by an amount given by a normal distribution with a mean of 1.05 (which represents an expected 5% increase) and a standard deviation of 0.015. Each year's inflation factor is independent of the other years. Selling price: The vehicle will debut with an MSRP of $11,800. After the first year the price will inflate by the same inflation factor that drives variable production costs (already reflected in model) First Year Demand: Demand for the first year is expected to be around 100,000, with upper or lower thresholds at 130,000 and 80,000 units, respectively (tip: use a triangular distribution). Demand Growth Rate: After the first year, demand is expected to increase each year by an amount given by a triangular distribution, with a minimum value of 0%, a maximum value of 10%, and a most likely value of 3%. The growth rate from year to year is independent of all other years.