Question: For questions 15 through 20, consider that AAPL is developing a new product. This is a 2-year project, which requires an investment of 1.5 million
For questions 15 through 20, consider that AAPL is developing a new product. This is a 2-year project, which requires an investment of 1.5 million EUR right away. One year from today, it will be known whether this project was a success or not (i.e., the first scenario has a 75% probability and the second one has a 25% probability). After knowing this, the firm will have to invest an additional 1 million EUR to begin production (i.e., in year 1), which will take one full year (i.e., the product will only be available for sale in year 2). If the project was considered to be a success in year 1, there is a 55% probability that sales will be high in year 2. If the project was not considered to be a success, there is a 40% probability that sales will be low in the following year. If the project was considered to be a success and sales are high in the following year, the payoff will be equal to 3.95 million EUR in year 2. If the project was considered to be a success, but sales are low, the payoff will only be 3 million. If the project was not considered a success and sales are high, the payoff will be 1.2 million. And in the last scenario (i.e., project was not a success and sales were low), the payoff would be 0.7 million. The relevant discount rate for this industry is 10% and the risk-free rate is half of the industry's discount rate. Both discount rates are annual, with annual compounding. The NPV of the project, without the option to abandon, is closest to what
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