For the Bakery Shop, using the first two weeks data as given on slides of forecasting lecture,

$$ Apply double exponential smoothing forecasting method considering seasonality

$($deseasoning$/$reseasoning$).(\backslash$alpha $=0\mathrm{.}1,\backslash$beta $=0\mathrm{.}1)$

$$ Apply Winter$$s forecasting method $(\backslash$alpha $=0\mathrm{.}1,\backslash$beta $=0\mathrm{.}1,\backslash$gamma $=0\mathrm{.}1)$

Describe the implementation details of both methods, evaluate the methods using the remaining

demand data for $24$ days. Submit your HW through LMS$.$

Note:

$(1)$ In applying DES, you may obtain initial slope and intercept as you get in Winter$$s method. Use the

first two weeks data for this purpose. Consider deseasoning and reseasoning as we have applied

with MA in lecture.

$(2)$ In applying Winter$$s$,$ use its usual procedure as explained in the lecture.

$(3)$ Evaluate your $24$ estimation using MAD and MSE for both methods.