Question: For the payoff table below, the decision maker will use P(s 1 ) = .15, P(s 2 ) = .5, and P(s 3 ) =
- For the payoff table below, the decision maker will use P(s1) = .15, P(s2) = .5, and P(s3) =
.35.
| s1 | s2 | s3 | |
| d1 | -5000 | 1000 | 10,000 |
| d2 | -15,000 | -2000 | 40,000 |
What alternative would be chosen according to expected value?
For a lottery having a payoff of 40,000 with probability p and -15,000 with probability (1-p), the decision maker expressed the following indifference probabilities.
| Payoff | Probability |
| 10,000 | .85 |
| 1000 | .60 |
| -2000 | .53 |
| -5000 | .50 |
Let U(40,000) = 10 and U(-15,000) = 0 and find the utility value for each payoff.
What alternative would be chosen according to expected utility?
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