Question: For the payoff table below, the decision maker will use P(s 1 ) = .15, P(s 2 ) = .5, and P(s 3 ) =

  • For the payoff table below, the decision maker will use P(s1) = .15, P(s2) = .5, and P(s3) =

.35.


s1
s2
s3
d1
-5000
1000
10,000
d2
-15,000
-2000
40,000

What alternative would be chosen according to expected value?

For a lottery having a payoff of 40,000 with probability p and -15,000 with probability (1-p), the decision maker expressed the following indifference probabilities.

Payoff
Probability
10,000
.85
1000
.60
-2000
.53
-5000
.50

Let U(40,000) = 10 and U(-15,000) = 0 and find the utility value for each payoff.

What alternative would be chosen according to expected utility?

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