A firm recorded its sales (Qt) in monthly observations from January 2013 to August 2014. The data
Question:
A firm recorded its sales (Qt) in monthly observations from January 2013 to August 2014. The data collected is shown in the table below:
Sales ($ Thousands)
Qt | |
Jan-13 | 46 |
Feb-13 | 56 |
Mar-13 | 72 |
May-13 | 67 |
Jun-13 | 77 |
Aug-13 | 66 |
Sep-13 | 69 |
Oct-13 | 79 |
Dec-13 | 88 |
Jan-14 | 91 |
Mar-14 | 94 |
Apr-14 | 104 |
Jun-14 | 100 |
Jul-14 | 113 |
Aug-14 | 120 |
a. Below is the output:
Regression Statistics | |
Multiple R | 0.960795768 |
R Square | 0.923128508 |
Adjusted R Square | 0.917215316 |
Standard Error | 6.064850994 |
Observations | 15 |
ANOVA | |||||
df | SS | MS | F | Significance F | |
Regression | 1 | 5742.228571 | 5742.228571 | 156.1134082 | 1.28554E-08 |
Residual | 13 | 478.1714286 | 36.78241758 | ||
Total | 14 | 6220.4 |
Dependent var: Qt | Coefficients | Standard Error | t Stat | P-value |
Intercept | 46.57 | 3.30 | 14.13 | 2.87E-09 |
t | 4.53 | 0.36 | 12.49 | 1.29E-08 |
b. The intercept (a) is 46.57. It tells us the value of Sales that is not dependent on time.
c. The slope term (b) is 4.53. It tells us the change in Sales when the time increases by 1 month.
d.
e. Forecast the level of sales in August 2015. Show your result in the chart.
f. Forecast the level of sales for August 2018. Don’t need to show it in the chart.
g. Which forecast is more reliable, 2015 or 2018? Why? Explain.
Quantitative Investment Analysis
ISBN: 978-1119104223
3rd edition
Authors: Richard A. DeFusco, Dennis W. McLeavey, Jerald E. Pinto, David E. Runkle