Forecasting and Line Balancing Exercise (25 Points) SCM 300 SALES DATA Use the data provided to answer questions 1 through 4. Month Sales 1 8552 2 7759 3 8315 4 8175 5 8817 6 8335 7 8188 8 7990 9 8090 10 7807 11 8365 12 8650 These are the sales figures for the TX-750 calculator. Calculators are sold every day of the month, but are only produced at the factory 5 days per week, Monday through Friday. DEMAND FORECASTING - PROBLEMS 1. (2 Point) What is the 4-Period Simple Moving Average Forecast for Period 13? 2. (2 Point) What is the 4-Period Weighted Moving Average Forecast for Period 13? Use weights of 0.10, 0.20,0.30, and 0.40 for periods 9 through 12, respectively. 3. (1 Point) Since the demand seems to be fairly stable over the 12 month period, according to your lecture notes, which of your two Period 13 forecasts would you use? a. Simple moving average b. Weighted moving average 4. (1 Point) If we assume an average of 22 working days per month in the factory, how many calculators will need to be produced per day in the factory if we use 4-Period Simple Moving Average Forecast for Period 13? SCM 300 EXERCISE #2 LINE BALANCING PRECEDENCE DIAGRAM Use the numbers calculated in questions 1 through 4 to complete question 5. Remember, the factory is open 22 days per month. The assembly line runs 8 hours per day. The following chart and precedence diagram give the necessary data to answer the line balancing related questions. ALL TIMES LISTED BELOW are IN SECONDS 17 A 61 71 G N 10 D 50 I 60 M 9 B 33 28 59 J K L 51 C 27 32 29 E F H LINE BALANCING - PROBLEMS 5. (2 Point) What is the Cycle Time that ensures the desired output rate? (Note: NEVER round up your cycle time!!! You should be able to figure out why this should never be done. Think about it, what would happen if you rounded up?) Use the number you round down to in all the calculations that follow. 6. (2 Point) What is the theoretical minimum number of workstations? (ALWAYS round up workstations. Again, from the lecture you should know why.) SCM 300 EXERCISE #2 7. (1 Point) As you know, you should always round up your theoretical minimum number of workstations. Nonetheless, the calculated theoretical minimum number of workstations is not always attainable. Based on your calculation to the previous question, which of the following seems most plausible? A. You will be able to create an acceptable assembly line that has EXACTLY the number of workstations as the calculated theoretical minimum number. B. You will be able to create an acceptable assembly line that has a SMALLER number of workstations than the calculated theoretical minimum number. C. Creating an acceptable assembly line that has exactly the theoretical number of workstations in very UNLIKELY. It is very likely you will need MORE workstations than the calculated theoretical minimum number 8. (1 Point) If someone were to create an assembly line that had 8 workstations, what would the efficiency of that assembly line be? 9. (1 Point) If someone were to create an assembly line that had 10 workstations, what would the efficiency of that assembly line be? 10. (1 Point) If someone were to create an assembly line that had 8 workstations, what would the total amount of idle (in seconds) in that assembly line? 11. (1 Point) If someone were to create an assembly line that had 10 workstations, what would the total amount of idle (in seconds) in that assembly line? SCM 300 EXERCISE #2 12. (2 Point) Using the precedence diagram on page 2 of this document, we have created four layouts below. Which of these four layouts is NOT valid? Layout A Layout B WS Elements Time WS Elements Time 1 ADI 77 1 AI 67 2 BG 70 2 DG 71 3 N 71 3 N 71 4 C 51 4 BC 60 5 JE 60 5 JE 60 6 FK 60 6 K 28 7 H 29 7 FH 61 8 L 59 8 L 59 9 M 60 9 M 60 Layout C Layout D WS Elements Time WS Elements Time 1 CBA 77 1 IDB 69 2 EJD 70 2 EJA 77 3 FH 61 3 C 51 4 I 50 4 FH 61 5 G 61 5 G 61 6 K 28 6 N 71 7 L 59 7 K 28 8 N 71 8 L 59 9 M 60 9 M 60 13. (1 Point) Use the correct answer to #12 to answer this question. Why is that particular layout not valid? 14. (1 Point) Assume all four layouts listed in #12 were possible, what is the effective cycle time of each layout? SCM 300 EXERCISE #2 Use the precedence diagram on page 2, the correct answer to question 5, and the following layout to answer questions 15-16. Question 15-16 WS Elements Time 1 CAB 77 2 I D 60 3 G 61 4 N 71 5 JE 60 6 KF 60 7 L 59 8 H 29 9 M 60 15. (1 Point) What is the idle time for this layout (in seconds)? 16. (1 Point) What is the efficiency of this layout? Use the precedence diagram on page 2 and the correct answer to question 5 to answer questions 17-18. 17. (2 Points) If workstation #1 is I,B (59 seconds) then which of the following would NOT be an acceptable workstation #2? a. AC b. ADE c. C d. DC e. DG f. EF g. EFD 18. (2 Points) If workstation #1 is I, D (60 seconds) and workstation #2 is A,C (68 seconds) then which of the following would NOT be an acceptable workstation #3? a. BEF b. BJ c. BJE d. BJK e. EF f. G g. GB h. JE