Forecasting Cas$($e$)/($P$)$roblem

Joel Sims Cakes Shoppe is trying not only to get accurate forecasts for three types of his cakes

that he sells, but also to determine which forecasting method should be used from now that

will be suited for each of the cakes. His past sixteen months of sales data $($in hundreds$)$ are

shown in the table below.

The questions are:

A$.$ By plotting the historical sales data of all the three cake types on same graph,

please suggest the possible forecasting method$($s$)$ you may want to consider for

each cake type. Please state your reasons.

B$)$ Cupcakes: Suppose you have restricted your forecasting method to a choice

between only Moving Averages $(3$ months only$)$ or Seasonal Forecast with trend:

i$.$ Determine your forecasts using each method.

ii$.$ Using MAD, which method would you recommend and state why? a$)$ By plotting the historical sales data of all the three cake types on same graph, please suggest the possible forecasting method$($s$)$ you may want to consider for each cake type. Please state your reasons.

b$)$ Cupcakes: Suppose you have restricted your forecasting method to a choice between only Moving Averages $(3$ months only$)$ or Seasonal Forecast with trend:

i$.$ Determine your forecasts using each method.

ii$.$ Using MAD, which method would you recommend and state why?