Forecasting CASE STUDIES Fast Creek Lightning: (B)* Fast Creek is a city in south central Saskatchewan located along the 2. What revenues are to be expected in the 2017-2018 and Trans-Canada Highway. Fast Creek has a population of just over 2018-2019 seasons? 27 000 residents and is a regional hub for the many smaller towns 3. Discuss the team's options. and hundreds of farms in the surrounding area. Fast Creek is a trans- portation and industrial centre, and has several federal and provin- cial government offices. Fast Creek is also a sports centre, and its junior hockey team. Month 2011-2012 2012-2013 2013-2014 the Fast Creek Lightning, has a long history of success in the Central November 34 200 36 100 35 900 Hockey League but has not won a major trophy in close to 10 years. December" 39 800 40 200 46 500 Since the legendary Scotty Beauchamp was hired as head coach in 2011 (in the hopes of winning the elusive league and national January 38 200 39 100 43 100 championship). total attendance at home games for each month has Februaryb 26 900 25 300 27 900 increased. Prior to Beauchamp's arrival, attendance averaged 25 000 March 35 100 36 200 39 200 to 29 000 per month (or between 5000 and 5800 tickets for each of the five home games per month). Season ticket sales bumped up by almost 2000 just with the announcement of the new coach's arrival. Month 2014-2015 2015-2016 2016-2017 The Fast Creek Lightning are ready to move to the big time! November 41 900 42 500 46 900 The immediate issue facing the Lightning, however, is not the December 46 100 48 200 50 100 championship. It is capacity. The existing Fast Creek arena, built in 1953, has seating for 10 800 fans. The following table indicates total January 43 900 44 200 45 900 home game attendance each month of the season for the past six years. Februaryb 30 100 33 900 36 300 One of Beauchamp's demands on joining the Lightning had March 40 500 47 800 49 900 been a new arena. With attendance increasing, Lightning executives and city officials have begun to face the issue head-on. Beauchamp "Every December, Fast Creek hosts a Holiday Classic weekend with special promo- tions and an old-timers' game that draws large crowds would like a state-of-the-art training facility solely for his players as an additional feature of any expansion. "A popular week-long winter carnival in nearby Helmsville every February has a negative impact on attendance. The Lightning's owner. Keith MacLennan, has decided it is time for his vice-president of development to forecast when the existing arena will "max out". The expansion is, in his mind, a given. But MacLennan needs to know how long he could wait. He "This integrated study runs throughout the text. Issues facing Fast Creek's also seeks a revenue projection, assuming an average ticket price of hockey expansion include (A) managing the arena project: (C) quality of $50 in 2017-2018 and a 5% increase each season in future prices. facilities; (D) break-even analysis for food services: (E) location of the new arena: (F) inventory planning of hockey programs; and (G) scheduling Discussion Questions of campus security officers/staff for game days. Recurring cases are also available in a separate file for instructors using the PCL. 1. Develop a forecasting model, justifying its selection over other forecasting techniques, and project attendance through the 2018-2019 season