Forecasting Case Study

In particular, Forecast the monthly demand for year 4 using an adaptive method of your choice, evaluate the latter using MAD and MSE, and compare it to Holts model that was done in class. Below you will find more details about the deliverables.

Case Report Perform an analysis on the three-year demand. Prepare a report that summarizes your findings, forecasts, and recommendations. Include the following:

1 A graph of the time series.

2 Choose another appropriate method for forecasting, and report the MAD and MSE.

3 Forecast the demand in year 4 following the better method (Holt or the new method).

4 Recommendations regarding the future and sustainability of MiKa Corporation.

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FORECASTING EXERCISE Consider monthly demand for the MIKA Corporation as shown in the Table below. Forecast the monthly demand for year 4 using an adaptive method of your choice, and evaluate the latter using MAD and MSE. Sales Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 JAN 204 234 230 FEB 213 231 231 MAR 203 227 229 APR 209 233 234 MAY 226 238 245 JUN 212 227 234 JUL 218 245 254 AUG 232 226 237 SEP 239 222 245 OCT 212 232 249 NOV 237 226 246 DEC 217 232 260