Forecasting Method: (simple) Exponential Smoothing with a=0.3. First, fill in the forecasts for weeks 6 and 7, then calculate forecast error for week 4 to 7.

Week Demand(D) Average (A) Forecast (F) Error(E)

1 100 A₁=(0.3)100+(1-0.3)110=107 F₁=110

2 150 A₂=(0.3)150+(1-0.3)107=119.90 F₂=107

3 130 A₃=(0.3)130+(1-0.3)119.90=122.93 F₃=119.90

4 140 A₄=(0.3)140+(1-0.3)122.93=128.05 F₄=122.93

5 120 F₅=128.05

6 110

7 100

Now compute the Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD) for weeks 4 thru 7 for each of the three forecasting methods. Then answer what is the most appropriate method according to MAD?