Forecasting Name a forecasting technique and note why it would be a good fit for these Items Item Technique (insert answers below) (a) Popularity of a TV show (b) Demand for tourist space travel (c) Demand for toothpaste (d) Sales for Christmas Cards (e) Impact of a new price for cosmetics Forecasting Calculations Historic Sales Results Table Month 1 2 3 Sales Year 1 15000) 600 530 550 575 600 700 700 4 s 6 Sales Year 2 15000) 622 550 564 500 522 716 7 ? ? ? 7 2 7 8 830 10 11 12 900 1000 8 10 12 Text version of the data to copy for plotting etc. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 600 530 550 575 600 700 700 622 550 564 600 622 716 ? 9 830 ? 11 900 800 850 ? 1000 ? ? ? (a) Plot the sales results and describe and discuss any trends or patterns you observe in the data. Insert answer here (b) Based on your understanding of annual, quarterly and monthly business cycles and activities, can you suggest what might be some the causes for the patterns you observe? Insert answer here Based on the table data and the patterns you have noted, use numbered Steps with point notes and words to explain the detailed calculations you would manually perform to forecast the sales for months 7 to 12 in Year 2 using the two techniques below: (c) 3 Month moving average (d) Exponential Smoothing with an alpha of 0.2 (Note if steps are repeated just indicate that in your answers. Be sure to describe and define any parameters or variables and assumptions used in your steps) Insert answer for (c) here Insert answer for (d) here (e) Complete your calculations for (c) and (d) and fill in the answers in the table below. Excel functions and calculations may be used. Insert answer here 7 8 9 10 11 12 Month 3 Month Moving Avg Exponential (f) Include these results in a plot that shows the forecast and the Historic Sales Results. Insert answer here (e) Identify, show, and explain the details of any examples of Excel Formulae or tools that could be used for the calculation of Moving Average and Exponential forecasts Insert answer here Productivity Calculations An office has a staff of three who work 8 hours a day for a total payroll cost of $480/day. The overhead costs per day is $300. Historically, the office has been completing an average of 7 product orders each day. The operations manager has recently introduced a new process which will increase the order throughput by 5 units per day using the same staff but requiring an additional overhead expense of $300 per day. (a) Calculate the Labour Productivity (show your steps) Insert answer here (b) Calculate the Multifactor productivity (show your steps) Insert answer here (c) For both calculate the productivity growth of the new process (show your steps) Insert answer here