Question: Forecasts Below are several exercises related to forecasting. It must show all the steps of how the result was obtained. Exercise 1: Develop a 12-month
Forecasts
Below are several exercises related to forecasting. It must show all the steps of how the result was obtained.
Exercise 1: Develop a 12-month moving average forecast to estimate the demand for year 3 of patients attending clinical trials at a medical office.
| Year | Month | Number of visits | Year | Month | Number of visits |
| 1 | January | 1,700 | 3 | January | ? |
| 1 | February | 2,500 | 3 | February | ? |
| 1 | March | 1,800 | 3 | March | ? |
| 1 | April | 1,976 | 3 | April | ? |
| 1 | May | 1,720 | 3 | May | ? |
| 1 | June | 1,736 | 3 | June | ? |
| 1 | July | 1,826 | 3 | July | ? |
| 1 | August | 2,168 | 3 | August | ? |
| 1 | September | 1,800 | 3 | September | ? |
| 1 | October | 1,551 | 3 | October | ? |
| 1 | November | 1,370 | 3 | November | ? |
| 1 | December | 1,933 | 3 | December | ? |
| 2 | January | 1,650 | |||
| 2 | February | 2,226 | |||
| 2 | March | 1,700 | |||
| 2 | April | 1,880 | |||
| 2 | May | 1,690 | |||
| 2 | June | 1,710 | |||
| 2 | July | 1,740 | |||
| 2 | August | 2,000 | |||
| 2 | September | 1,800 | |||
| 2 | October | 1,450 | |||
| 2 | November | 1,230 | |||
| 2 | December | 1,900 |
Exercise 2: The company San Juan Family Healthcare Services, Inc. is made up of health professionals from various specialties. From experience, the Operations Manager knows that the demand for patients is not fixed, but seasonal. In other words, year after year more patients are seen during the months of June, July and December. In order to adequately plan their budget strategies, an analysis of the historical income of the previous year is made to forecast those of the next year:
| Month | Year | |
| 20x9 | 20x0 | |
| January | $400,000 | $380,000 |
| February | $375,000 | $325,500 |
| March | $380,000 | $392,000 |
| April | $405,000 | $374,000 |
| May | $665,000 | $628,500 |
| June | $800,000 | $770,000 |
| July | $755,000 | $700,500 |
| August | $435,000 | $400,500 |
| September | $360,000 | $300,000 |
| October | $390,000 | $340,000 |
| November | $450,000 | $420,000 |
| December | $800,000 | $765,000 |
A revenue forecast for the 20x1 year using the multiplicative seasonal method. Base the estimate on the fact that the projected demand for patients will be 10% less than that of the year 20x0.
It should show all steps of the result. 1. Calculate the average demand per year. 2. Calculate the seasonal index by month. 3. Calculate the average seasonal index. 4. Using the average seasonal index, calculate the forecast for the year 20x1.
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