fx

A

B

C

D

E

F

$G^{}$

H

$1$

K

L

M

N

$0$

$P$

Problem $3(15$ points$)$: Exponential smoothing

a $(6$ pts$)$ Forecast number of surgeries using exponential smoothing with a smoothing constant of $0\mathrm{.}8$ and assuming F$1=$A$1.$

b $(9$ pts$)$ Compute MAD, MSE, and MAPE:

Demand for heart transplant surgery at Washington General Hospital has increased steadily in the past few years, as shown below. The director of medical services wants to choose a forecast method to predict the demand in year $6$

$\backslash$table$[[$Year$,$Heart Transplants,Forecasts$],[1,45,],[2,50,],[3,52,],[4,56,],[5,58,],[6,?,]]$

$\backslash$table$[[||||$et $|||,$et$2,||||$et$|/$At$,],[,,,],[,,,],[,,,],[,,,],[$Average$,,,],[,$MAD,$13\mathrm{.}512,5\mathrm{.}52\%$