Given the following data, use exponential smoothing with = 0.1 and = 0.6 to generate forecasts for periods 2 through 6. Use MAD and MSE to decide which of the two models produced a better forecast.

(Round your answers to 2 decimal places, e.g.,2.25.)

Period Actual Forcast

1 13 16

2 17

3 17

4 10

5 11

6 17

___________________Forecast_________________

Period Actual a=0.1 a=0.6

1 13.00 16.00 16.00

2 17.00 ________ ___________

3 17.00 _________ ___________

4 10.00 _________ ___________

5 11.00 __________ ____________

6 17.00 __________ ____________

MAD ___________ __________

_____ MSE

Exponential smoothing using = .6 or .1 yields lower MAD

Exponential smoothing using = .6 or .1 yields lower MSE