Given the following demand, please generate forecasts by arithmetic mean, last period value, MA $(3),$ MA $(5),$ ES $(0\mathrm{.}1),$ ES $(0\mathrm{.}4),$ and ES $(0\mathrm{.}9).$ Please calculate MAD$$for each forecasting method.$$Which forecasting method performs the best, the worst?$$

Analysis

Arithmetic Mean $5\mathrm{.}299911817$

LPV $8\mathrm{.}555555556$

MA $(3)5\mathrm{.}857142857$

MA $(5)6\mathrm{.}12$

ES $(0\mathrm{.}1)5\mathrm{.}103708989$

ES$(0\mathrm{.}4)5\mathrm{.}708340622$

ES$(0\mathrm{.}98\mathrm{.}157910233$