Good Luck!

Consider the following time series data:

$(15$ points$)$

$\backslash$table$[[$Month$,1,2,3,4,5,6,7],[$Value$,22,15,19,10,16,21,20]]$

a$.$ Develop a month$-$week moving average for this time series. Forecast for Month $8?$

b$.$ Use $=0\mathrm{.}2$ to compute the exponential smoothing values for the time series. Forecast for Month

$8.$ The forecast for Month $6$ is $21.$

c$.$ Compare the three$-$month moving average forecast with the exponential smoothing forecast using $=0\mathrm{.}2.$ Which appears to provide the better forecast based on MSE, use periods $6$ and $7$ to make the judgement?