Greg Umanski is currently considering several new movie scripts trying to select a most promising one. He eventually compiled a short list of three screenplays.

The Happy Days is a comedy script which tells the story of a young gifted screenwriter and an old and famous actor. The role of the old actor is written specifically for Sir Brian Monahan, a British film star and a comic of great renown, the Oscar winner of 1999 and 2013. If Sir Brian takes part in the project, then Umanski's studio accounting department estimates that the film will make a profit of about $75 million. However, it is known that Sir Brian has serious health problems and a problem with alcohol. Greg estimates that there is a 20% chance that Monahan will not be able to complete the work on the project and will have to be replaced by another British, American, or maybe Canadian actor. Then, depending on who becomes a replacement actor, in the best case scenario, the film will make a profit of $15 million; in the worst case scenario, the film would most likely be a box-office failure with the loss of $8 million. Greg thinks that the first scenario is 70% probable and the second scenario is 30% probable.

The second script, The Lynx, is so absorbing that Umanski could not stop reading until it was finished. The script contains such convincing and scandalous details that Umanski suspects that the text could not been written without help of the Lynx herself. Greg is sure that a movie based on the script in its current form (version A) will be a huge box office hit. Then, Greg Umanski would like a Russian actress Irina Antonova to get the starring role in the film. The chance that Antonova will be able to accept the role is just 50%. With Antonova playing the lead role Greg counts on $150 million profit in case of version A and $90 million in case of version B. If Antonova has to be replaced by another actress, then Greg Umanski

counts on $70 million profit in case of version A and $30 million in case of version B. Based on the extensive previous experience Greg can approximately estimate the legal fees and expenses as follows: there is 60 % likelihood that the company will lose $8 million, there is 30 % likelihood that the company will lose $20 million, and there is 10 % likelihood that the company will lose $50 million. However, if Antonova becomes the lead actress, the higher expenses will be unavoidable as she can be very convincing on the screen and therefore the opposite side will be more aggressive in court. Greg thinks there is 50 % likelihood that the company will lose $10 million, there is 40 % likelihood that the company will lose $25 million, and there is 10 % likelihood that the company will lose $80 million. The possible legal fees are not incorporated in the

presented profits as the legal problems are expected to arise after the profits have been received and should be considered separately.

The City of Yes and the City of No is a fantasy script. Greg Umanski failed to appreciate. He thinks that there is 35% probability that the film can result in a huge $150 million profit and 65% probability that that the project will be a box office flop and will just break-even. Greg is

thinking about employing the famous company Klein CGI Inc. located at the intersection of Yonge St. and Wellington St. in the downtown Toronto. Klein CGI specialists will provide either favourable report predicting a huge success, or unfavourable report predicting a relative failure. It is known that there is 90% chance that Klein CGI Inc. provides favourable report given positive outcome. There is also 75% chance that Klein CGI Inc. provides unfavourable repot given negative outcome. The company can perform a finished and detailed analysis and would require, all in all, a $1.2 million fee.

Due to the recent financial difficulties the Greg Umanski Studio is able to undertake only one project, focusing on either The Happy Days, or The Lynx, or The City of Yes and the City of No.

An analysis of the problem facing the Greg Umanski Studio is required, including a recommendation as to whether Greg Umanski should employ Klein CGI Inc., along with the detailed decision policy, the value of the information provided by the research firm ( EVPI and EVSI) and the efficiency of this information.