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Please I need urgent help with this question below

Question 1

The PDC is a government agency tasked with supporting the development of the Oman economy. One of PDC`s key strategies is to support the diversification of the economy away from a reliance on oil. One of the initiatives under considerations is the construction of a new business complex. The complex will be located near the international airport and will consist of a number of purpose built business units. PDC is also expected to maximize the financial return on the project. However, PDC is facing some uncertainty particularly in relation to the expected demand for units in the complex. PDC president gave two possible chance event outcomes: a strong demand and a weak demand.

S1 = strong demand for the units S2 = weak demand for the units

As a result of this uncertainty, PDC has commissioned three alternative plans for the complex:

D1 = to build a small complex of 30 business units D2= to build a medium sized complex of 60 units D3=to build a large complex of 90 units.

State of nature
Decision Alternative	Strong Demand S1	Weak Demand S2
Small complex,D1	8	7
Medium Complex,D2	14	5
Large Complex,D3	20	-9

Table show, payoff table for the PDC project (in million Rials)

Draw a decision tree. PDC is optimistic about the potential for the complex. Suppose that this optimism leads to an initial subjective probability assessment of 0.8 that demand will be strong(S1) and corresponding probability of 0.2 that demands will be weak (S2), Calculate the Expected Monetary Value(EMV) and draw a decision dree. What is the recommended decision using the decision tree with EMV and why? Now, PDC to make the best possible decision, they want to see additional information about the states of nature. So, PDC is considering market research study designed to learn more about potential market acceptance of the PDC project. Management anticipated that the market research study will provide one of the following two results:

1. Favourable report: A significant number of the individuals contacted express interest in purchasing or leasing a PDC unit.
2. Unfavourable report: Very few of the individuals contacted express interest in purchasing or leasing a PDC unit.

Draw a Decision tree using the market research study. Now, PDC have anticipated below probabilities,

If the market research study is undertaken:

P(Favourable report)=0.77 P(Unfavourable report)=0.23

If the market research report is favourable:

P(Strong demand given a favourable report)=0.94 P(Weak demand given a favourable report)=0.06

If the market research report is unfavourable:

P(Strong demand given an unfavourable report)=0.35 P(Weak demand given an unfavourable report)=0.65

If the market research report is not undertaken, the prior probabilities are applied. Calculate the EMV and draw a decision tree. What is the recommended decision using the decision tree with EMV and why?

Bayes` Rule: A printer manufacturer obtained the following probabilities from a database of test results. Printer failures are associated with three types of problems: hardware, software, and other (such as connectors) with probabilities of 0.1, 0.6, and

3. respectively. The probability of a printer failure given a hardware problem is 0.9, given a software problem is 0.2 and given any other type of problem is 0.5. If a customer enters the manufacturer`s website to diagnose a printer failure, what is the most likely cause of the problem?

Part 1-Outcomes- 1 mark	Page Number
Introduction to problem
Decisions Tree without EMV
EMV with Decision Tree and Discussion
Decision Tree, EMV and Final Decision and Discussion
Byes Rule problem
Byes Rule outcomes and Discussion

Thank you