Question: Hello Professor and classmates, State the variable you are forecasting: I am using GNP trading economics http://www.tradingeconomics.com/united-states/grossnational-product. I will be looking at the US gross

Hello Professor and classmates, State the variable you are forecasting: I am using GNP trading economics http://www.tradingeconomics.com/united-states/grossnational-product. I will be looking at the US gross national products from Jan 2014 to Jan 2017. 2014 JAN 15961.5 2014 JUL 16106.1 2014 JUL 16316 2015 JAN 16386.4 2015 JAN 16453.3 2015 JUL 16545.7 2015 JUL 16614 2016 JAN 16668.4 2016 JAN 16668.3 2016 JUL 16757.6 2016 JUL 16897.4 2017 JAN 17017.6 UNITED STATES GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT Moving averages - 3 period moving average Forecasting Num pds 3 Data Period Forecasts and Error Analysis Demand Forecast Error Absolute Squared Abs Pct Err JAN 15961.5 JUL 16106.1 JUL 16316 JAN 16386.4 16127.87 258.5333 258.5333 66839.48 01.58% JAN 16453.3 16269.5 183.8 183.8 33782.44 01.12% JUL 16545.7 16385.23 160.4667 160.4667 25749.55 00.97% JUL 16614 16461.8 152.2 152.2 23164.84 00.92% JAN 16668.4 16537.67 130.7333 130.7333 17091.2 00.78% JAN 16668.3 16609.37 58.93333 58.93333 3473.138 00.35% JUL 16757.6 16650.23 107.3667 107.3667 11527.6 00.64% JUL 16897.4 16698.1 199.3 199.3 39720.49 01.18% JAN 17017.6 16774.43 243.1667 243.1667 59130.03 01.43% 1494.5 1494.5 280478.8 08.97% 166.0556 166.0556 31164.31 01.00% Total Average Bias MAD MSE SE January MAPE 200.1709 16890.8667 UNITED STATES GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT Weighted moving averages - 3 period moving average Forecasting Data Period Forecasts and Error Analysis Demand Weights Forecast Error Absolute Squared Abs Pct Err JAN 15961.5 1 JUL 16106.1 2 JUL 16316 3 JAN 16386.4 16186.95 199.45 199.45 39780.3 01.22% JAN 16453.3 16316.22 137.0833 137.0833 18791.84 00.83% JUL 16545.7 16408.12 137.5833 137.5833 18929.17 00.83% JUL 16614 16488.35 125.65 125.65 15787.92 00.76% JAN 1668.4 16564.45 -14896.1 14896.05 2.22E+08 892.83% JAN 16668.3 9129.817 7538.483 7538.483 56828731 45.23% JUL 16757.6 11659.28 5098.317 5098.317 25992833 30.42% JUL 16897.4 14212.97 2684.433 2684.433 7206182 15.89% JAN 17017.6 16812.62 204.9833 204.9833 42018.17 01.20% Total 1229.933 31022.03 3.12E+08 989.21% Average 136.6593 3446.893 34672818 109.91% Bias MAD MSE MAPE SE January 6676.776 16934.2 UNITED STATES GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT Forecasting Exponential smoothing Alpha 0.2 Data Period Forecasts and Error Analysis Demand Forecast Error Absolute Squared Abs Pct Err JAN 15961.5 15961.5 0 0 0 00.00% JUL 16106.1 15961.5 144.6 144.6 20909.16 00.90% JUL 16316 15990.42 325.58 325.58 106002.3 02.00% JAN 16386.4 16055.54 330.864 330.864 109471 02.02% JAN 16453.3 16121.71 331.5912 331.5912 109952.7 02.02% JUL 16545.7 16188.03 357.673 357.673 127929.9 02.16% JUL 16614 16259.56 354.4384 354.4384 125626.6 02.13% JAN 16668.4 16330.45 337.9507 337.9507 114210.7 02.03% JAN 16668.3 16398.04 270.2606 270.2606 73040.77 01.62% JUL 16757.6 16452.09 305.5084 305.5084 93335.41 01.82% JUL 16897.4 16513.19 384.2068 384.2068 147614.8 02.27% JAN 17017.6 16590.03 427.5654 427.5654 182812.2 0.025125 Total 3570.238 3570.238 1210906 21.48% Average 297.5199 297.5199 100908.8 01.79% Bias MAD MSE SE Reply MAPE 347.9807

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