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K-3 Item Absolute 10/15/75 Error Absolute (weighted (weighted Error (K=3) Moving) Moving) (10/15/75) (Moving Average) Error No Demand Error(k=3) 1 3111.00 2 3140.00 3 3138.00 4 3015.00 3129.67 -114.67 114.67 3135.6 -120.6 120.6 5 3117.00 3097.67 19.33 19.33 3045.95 71.05 71.05 6 3053.00 3090.00 -37.00 37.00 3103.8 -50.8 50.8 7 3061.67 19.33 19.33 22.2 00 N 3081.00 3070.00 3058.8 3080.4 22.2 -10.4 3083.67 -13.67 13.67 10.4 9 3126.00 3068.00 58.00 58.00 3069.95 56.05 56.05 10 3088.00 3092.33 4.33 4.33 3113.1 -25.1 25.1 -10.43 Averages 38.05 -8.23 50.89 Based on this data which forecasting method is accurate We cannot determine the better method because one forecast has a higher absolute error while the other a higher error The weighted moving average is accurate because it has the least error The moving average is accurate because it has the least absolute error Both are accurate and can be selected K=3 Item Absolute 10/15/75 Error Absolute Error (weighted (weighted Error (K=3) Moving) Moving) (10/15/75) No (Moving Demand Average) 3111.00 Error{k=3) 1 2 3140.00 3 3138.00 4 3015.00 3129.67 - 114.67 114.67 3135.6 -120.6 120.6 5 3117.00 3097.67 19.33 19.33 3045.95 71.05 71.05 6 3053.00 3090.00 -37.00 37.00 3103.8 -50.8 50.8 7 3081.00 3061.67 19.33 3058.8 22.2 22.2 19.33 - 13.67 8 3070.00 3083.67 13.67 3080.4 -10. 10.4 9 3126.00 3068.00 58.00 58.00 3069.95 56.05 56.05 10 3088.00 3092.33 -4.33 4.33 3113.1 -25.1 25.1 Averages -10.43 38.05 -8.23 50.89 If we computed the forecast using exponential smoothing how many forecast values (values that real forecasts) would you have? O 10 07 08 9 ON