Help with responding to classmates discussion post

I ran a juvenile statistics report on New Jersey between 2008 and 2014. I was surprised that overall the numbers all declined, albeit some with an ebb and flow. I ran a report to 2024 and was surprised to see that the overall numbers had declined again. I feel like things have been on the rise for a while now with juvenile crimes, but the numbers do not back that up (FBI Crime Data Explorer, 2025). For example, homicides decreased from 31 to 21 between 2008 and 2014 (FBI CDE, 2025). By 2024, it dropped to 14 (FBI CDE, 2025). Violent and property crimes all decreased over time from the initial 2008 numbers until 2024 (FBI CDE, 2025). I also Googled these statistics to see what else there may be on the subject and found an article by The Sentencing Project. According to The Sentencing Project, juvenile incarcerations in the nation have decreased by 75% between 2000 and 2022 (The Sentencing Project, 2024).

I was surprised by the declining numbers, as the perception is that youth are doing a lot more in terms of violating laws. However, the statistics for NJ seem to align with the overall decline in youth incarceration. This may not mean there is less police contact between police and juveniles; diversion programs could account for a lot of the lower rates of juvenile detention, but surely, there must also be a reduction in juvenile acts of criminal behavior as well. I believe that to be the case.