Hi there,

I need help resolving the following question, requesting starting points and formulas. Please help.

Assignment 4B:Forecasting [20 marks]

Siberian Charter Adventures is an independent Canadian company focused on providing unique charter tours to Siberia. The company has averaged between 1,000 and 1,500 tourists per month, and the operations manager wants to develop a forecast model to aid in planning. The operations manager has provided you with historical tourist data for the 24 months in 2014 and 2015.

the accompanying data file is attached for your reference.

Prepare a set of forecasts for each of the following three methods. Please read the instructions in the Excel^TM file carefully before you begin. Note that the forecasts can be created using Microsoft Excel, and you should submit your spreadsheet with your assignment for grading.

a.Three-month moving average.

b.Exponential smoothing based on what you believe to be an appropriate alpha constant. Provide a brief justification.

c.Trend-adjusted exponential smoothing based on what you believe to be appropriate alpha and beta constants. Provide a brief justification for your choices.

2.Complete the following error summary table of the three forecasts, and then comment on the results. Identify which forecast method you believe the company should adopt.

MAD

MSE

MAPE

three-month moving average

Exponential smoothing

Trend-adjusted exponential smoothing

Athabasca University MGSC 369_Rev6 - Service Operations Management Assignment 4 Instructions: Please read carefully This data file contains randomly generated passenger data. It will change every time you open it or every time you make any To solidify your data for your assignment, select the green highlighted cells (B11:B34) select COPY, then right click to select P Once you confirm the data does not change, you can use it to prepare the required forecasts. Month Jan-14 Feb-14 Mar-14 Apr-14 May-14 Jun-14 Jul-14 Aug-14 Sep-14 Oct-14 Nov-14 Dec-14 Jan-15 Feb-15 Mar-15 Apr-15 May-15 Jun-15 Jul-15 Aug-15 Sep-15 Oct-15 Nov-15 Dec-15 Actual Demand (Number of Tourists) 1200 1132 1088 1215 1228 1073 1357 1389 1119 1161 1296 1188 1495 1303 1061 1307 1343 1372 1182 1220 1239 1351 1218 1142 en it or every time you make any change t COPY, then right click to select PASTE VALUES from the paste options contextual menu