Holt-Winter's method Three-period moving average Alpha Beta Gamma 0.200 0.100 0.200 MAD ME MAD ME Year Base level (E) Trend (T) Seasonality (S) Forecast FE Abs FE Forecast FE Abs FE Period 3 4 5 6 7 Month March April May Demand 1 104 1 142 1 125 1 165 1 140 1 137 8 1 1 9 10 11 12 13 166 166 221 1 1 2 191 164 203 281 14 15 2 2 16 2 2 17 243 271 279 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 2 2 2 2 2 320 227 285 323 284 2 2 286 287 3 3 26 329 279 27 28 3 3 June July August September October November December January February March April May June July August September October November December January February March April May June July August September October November December January February March April May June July August September October November December January February March 353 329 3 29 30 3 299 409 31 32 33 3 3 382 281 409 3 3 3 34 299 35 36 37 3 4 4 38 39 40 340 382 307 449 460 4 4 41 4 331 428 42 4 4 476 368 4 43 44 45 46 4 502 4 47 4 4 48 49 50 515 419 544 479 546 5 5 5 51 Assignment 1 Please see the data in the next tab ("Data & Template"). For this data, please implement a) Holt-Winter's forecasting method (please use the given values for alpha, beta and gamma - do *not* change them), and b) the three-period moving average forecasting method. Please answer the following questions: 1) What is forecast for period 51 (March of Year 5) when Holt-Winter's method is used? Answer: units 2) What is forecast for period 51 (March of Year 5) when the three-period moving average method is used? Answer: units 3) Which of these forecasts (see 1) and 2)] do you consider to be the better forecast for period 51? Please explain and justify your answer (~30-70 words) Answer: Holt-Winter's method Three-period moving average Alpha Beta Gamma 0.200 0.100 0.200 MAD ME MAD ME Year Base level (E) Trend (T) Seasonality (S) Forecast FE Abs FE Forecast FE Abs FE Period 3 4 5 6 7 Month March April May Demand 1 104 1 142 1 125 1 165 1 140 1 137 8 1 1 9 10 11 12 13 166 166 221 1 1 2 191 164 203 281 14 15 2 2 16 2 2 17 243 271 279 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 2 2 2 2 2 320 227 285 323 284 2 2 286 287 3 3 26 329 279 27 28 3 3 June July August September October November December January February March April May June July August September October November December January February March April May June July August September October November December January February March April May June July August September October November December January February March 353 329 3 29 30 3 299 409 31 32 33 3 3 382 281 409 3 3 3 34 299 35 36 37 3 4 4 38 39 40 340 382 307 449 460 4 4 41 4 331 428 42 4 4 476 368 4 43 44 45 46 4 502 4 47 4 4 48 49 50 515 419 544 479 546 5 5 5 51 Assignment 1 Please see the data in the next tab ("Data & Template"). For this data, please implement a) Holt-Winter's forecasting method (please use the given values for alpha, beta and gamma - do *not* change them), and b) the three-period moving average forecasting method. Please answer the following questions: 1) What is forecast for period 51 (March of Year 5) when Holt-Winter's method is used? Answer: units 2) What is forecast for period 51 (March of Year 5) when the three-period moving average method is used? Answer: units 3) Which of these forecasts (see 1) and 2)] do you consider to be the better forecast for period 51? Please explain and justify your answer (~30-70 words)