Home Insert Draw Formulas Data Review View Shape Calibri (Body) BI Uebe ABC 123 x . D 1 Year 2010 2011 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 Quarter 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 Sales 82.5 813 81.3 79 76.6 78 78.4 78 788 78.7 78.4 80 80.7 80.7 80.8 2012 The data on the left represent 15 quarters of sales data. a. Visualize the data set. Is this a stationary or non-stationary time series? Why? 3 pts. b. Compute three-quarter simple and weighted moving averages for this time series. Assume the following weights: newest observation (last period): 0.6; next to last period: 0.3, second to last period: 0.1. Find the forecasts for the 4th quarter of 2013 and for the ist quarter of 2014. Which method provides the better forecast?44 pts c. For the same two periods develop an exponential smoothing forecast. Use smoothing constants alpha = 0.4. 3 pts d. Based on b. and c. which method-moving averages or exponential smoothing - provides the better forecast? Explain. 2 pts 2013 1 2 15 3 4 2014 1 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 Intro LP Forecast 1 Forecast 2 Essay +